Projection of national and provincial economy under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.161

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on national demographic and economic census and annual statistical yearbooks, this paper focused on the projection of national and provincial economy in China during 2020-2100, using Cobb-Douglas model under the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results show that: (1) national economy will keep rising up to 2070-2080 and then decline under sustainability (SSP1) and inequality (SSP4), while GDP will continue to grow under middle of the road (SSP2) and fossil-fueled development (SSP5) and stagnate after 2040 under regional rivalry (SSP3). (2) GDP can maintain about 6.0% growth rate before 2020s under all SSPs, but will slow down to less than 5.0% afterwards and may stagnate or even show negative growth. (3) The social and economic development policies have direct impacts on the provincial economic growth. GDP at the Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shandong provinces ranks in the top three under SSP1~SSP5 in 2020s. In 2090s, provinces ranks in the top three keep consistent with 2020s under SSP1 and SSP5, but Zhejiang will rank the second under SSP2, Henan enters the top three under SSP3, and the top three provinces will be changed as Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang under SSP4. (4) As for growth rate of GDP, Shandong and Zhejiang can stay above 6.0% under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5 in 2020s, only Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces can maintain about 5.0% and some provinces might show negative growth under SSP3 and SSP4. In 2090s, all provincial GDP growth rate will be less than 1.0%.

Key words: Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), Cobb-Douglas model, Economic projection, Provincial level, China

Tong JIANG, Jing ZHAO, Li-Ge CAO, Yan-Jun WANG, Bu-Da SU, Cheng JING, Run WANG, Chao GAO. Projection of national and provincial economy under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(1): 50-58.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1 Assumptions on total factor productivity (TFP) in China under the five SSPs

Fig. 1 Comparison of the recorded and projected annual GDP under SSP2 in 2011-2016

Fig. 2 GDP (a) and GDP growth rate (b) in China for 2000-2100

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of provincial annual GDP in China in 2020s

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of annual growth rate of provincial GDP in China in 2020s

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