气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (5): 439-447.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.135

• 美国退出《巴黎协定》对国际气候治理的影响专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

美国退出《巴黎协定》的原因、影响及中国的对策

张海滨1, 戴瀚程2, 赖华夏3, 王文涛4   

  1. 1 北京大学国际关系学院, 北京 100871;
    2 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871;
    3 美国华盛顿大学, 西雅图 98195-5852;
    4 科技部21世纪议程管理中心, 北京 100038
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-28 修回日期:2017-08-19 出版日期:2017-09-30 发布日期:2017-09-30
  • 作者简介:张海滨,男,教授,zhanghb@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部2017年应急管理项目“美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响及我国的应对策略”

U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement:Reasons, Impacts and China's Response

Zhang Haibin1, Dai Hancheng2, Lai Huaxia3, Wang Wentao4   

  1. 1 School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
    2 College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
    3 University of Washington, Seattle 98195-5852, USA;
    4 The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing 100038, China
  • Received:2017-06-28 Revised:2017-08-19 Online:2017-09-30 Published:2017-09-30

RichHTML

29

PDF

2185

被引次数

9

摘要：

综合应用定性与定量分析方法，分析美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》的原因，评估美国退出《巴黎协定》对《巴黎协定》履约前景的影响并提出中国的应对策略。美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》是全球气候治理的重大事件，将对《巴黎协定》的履约产生多重影响，包括将对《巴黎协定》的普遍性构成严重伤害，动摇以《巴黎协定》为核心的国际气候治理体制的基础；将导致《巴黎协定》履约中的领导力赤字问题显著恶化；可能引发不良示范效应，降低国际气候合作信心；将会对其他地区碳排放空间形成不可忽视的挤压，进而推高其他地区碳减排成本；美国大幅削减国际气候援助资金将削弱发展中国家减缓和适应气候变化的能力；美国延迟采取气候行动可能导致全球减排错失最佳时间窗口；美国大幅削减气候变化基础研究经费将对未来全球气候科学研究产生不利影响，进而影响《巴黎协定》履约谈判的权威性等，最后显著加大实现温控目标的难度，甚至导致目标无法实现。就全球气候治理的全局而言，全球气候治理的框架不会坍塌，但确实会受到动摇；全球气候治理的进程不会逆转，但确实会迟滞。美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》使中国面临多重挑战，其中之一是中国面临急剧上升的期望中国承担全球气候治理领导的国际压力。为此，中国对内应实现国家自主贡献的上限目标，对外应积极重建全球气候治理集体领导体制，即用C5取代G2，同时继续努力改变美国对气候变化的消极立场。

关键词: 美国退出《巴黎协定》, 履约, 全球气候治理, 中国的对策

Abstract:

Combining qualitative study and quantitative study, this article analyzes the reasons why U.S. president Trump decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, assesses the impact of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the implementation of the Paris Agreement and China, and makes policy suggestions on how China should respond. Undoubtedly, U.S. withdrawal is a big event for global climate governance in the sense that it will exert multi-dimensional impacts on the implementation of the Paris Agreement. U.S. withdrawal seriously undermines the universality of the Paris Agreement, which is perceived as the backbone of global climate regime, aggravates the leadership deficit in global climate governance, sets a bad precedent for global climate cooperation, wins itself more emission right and lower cost of mitigation while squeezing other countries' carbon emission space and raising their cost of mitigation, make it more difficult for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change, may cost the world the window of opportunity in climate mitigation, will compromise the quality of future IPCC reports and ultimately undermine the authority of future negotiations under the Paris Agreement, and finally makes the long term goal much tougher to achieve, even unlikely. In general, the framework of global climate governance will not collapse but will be shaken; the process of global climate governance will not be reversed but will be slowed. U.S. withdrawal poses a lot of challenges to China. One of them is the rising demand and pressure from international community that China should assume global climate leadership alone. In this context, China should achieve the most ambitious targets in the range of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) domestically, and facilitates the reestablishment of shared global climate leadership, which means shifting from G2 to C5 in an active manner internationally. At the same time, China should work hard to pull U.S. back.

Key words: U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, implementation, global climate governance, China's response

京ICP备11008704号-4
版权所有 © 《气候变化研究进展》编辑部
地址：北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号　邮编：100081　电话/传真：(010)58995171　E-mail：accr@cma.gov.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发　技术支持：support@magtech.com.cn