智能互联重塑中国能源体系

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.030

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (2): 204-211.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.030

智能互联重塑中国能源体系

王利宁¹(), 陈文颖²(), 戴家权¹, 向征艰¹, 龚金双¹

1 中国石油经济技术研究院中国石油油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室,北京 100724
2 清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京 100084

收稿日期:2020-02-21 修回日期:2020-04-10 出版日期:2021-03-30 发布日期:2021-04-02
通讯作者: 陈文颖
作者简介:王利宁,男,高级经济师, wanglining87@cnpc.com.cn
基金资助:
中国石油集团《世界与中国能源展望研究》项目;国家自然科学基金(71690243)

Research on intelligent interconnection reshaping China’s energy system

WANG Li-Ning¹(), CHEN Wen-Ying²(), DAI Jia-Quan¹, XIANG Zheng-Jian¹, GONG Jin-Shuang¹

1 CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast, CNPC, Beijing 100724, China
2 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2020-02-21 Revised:2020-04-10 Online:2021-03-30 Published:2021-04-02
Contact: CHEN Wen-Ying

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着第五代移动通信（5G）技术的突破、推广与应用,世界逐渐进入智能互联时代。在此背景下,本研究以能源系统分析模型（GCAM）为基础,设计和模拟基准与智能互联情景,探索在智能互联技术加快突破的情况下我国能源转型发展道路。研究发现,与基准情景比较,智能互联情景下能源结构更加清洁,能源系统更加高效,2050年一次能源消费量下降6.2%;数字化、智能化技术使用将显著提升终端部门电气化水平,2050年达48.1%,较基准情景提高9.6个百分点;储能技术、智能电网、分布式用能体系将促进可再生能源开发应用规模加速增长,2050年可再生能源发电占比将达到60.0%,较基准情景提高13.3个百分点;我国绿色低碳、安全高效的能源体系更早形成,碳排放在达峰后将快速下降,2050年仅为56.0亿t,较2018年下降41.8%,为全球应对气候变化做出更大贡献。

关键词: 智能互联, 能源转型, 能源系统分析模型, 碳排放

Abstract:

With the breakthrough, promotion and application of the fifth-generation mobile communication (5G) technology, the world is gradually entering the era of intelligent interconnection. Based on an energy system analysis model (GCAM), the baseline and intelligent interconnection scenarios were designed and simulated, and the development path of China’s energy transformation was explored under the circumstance that the breakthrough of intelligent interconnection technology is accelerated. Results show that compared with the baseline scenario, the energy system is more efficient under the intelligent interconnection scenario, indicating that the primary energy consumption would be 6.2% lower in 2050; the use of digital and intelligent technology will greatly improve the electrification level of final energy use, which would be 9.6 percentage points higher than that in baseline scenario; energy storage technology, smart grid and distributed energy system will accelerate the development and application of renewable energy, the percentage of which in power generation would be 13.3 percentage points higher than that in baseline scenario; China’s green, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system will be built earlier, and carbon emissions would drop rapidly after reaching their peak, being 5.6 Gt in 2050 (decreasing by 41.8% compared with 2018), making greater contribution to the global response to climate change.

Key words: Intelligent interconnection, Energy transformation, Energy system analysis model (GCAM), CO₂ emissions

王利宁, 陈文颖, 戴家权, 向征艰, 龚金双. 智能互联重塑中国能源体系[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(2): 204-211.

WANG Li-Ning, CHEN Wen-Ying, DAI Jia-Quan, XIANG Zheng-Jian, GONG Jin-Shuang. Research on intelligent interconnection reshaping China’s energy system[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(2): 204-211.

图/表 6

图1 GCAM能源系统结构

Fig. 1 Energy system structure of GCAM

表1 主要经济社会参数设定

Table 1 Main assumptions for social and economic data

图2 不同情景下分部门终端用能

Fig. 2 Final energy consumptions in different scenarios

图3 不同情景发电结构

Fig. 3 The electricity generation mix in different scenarios

图4 不同情景一次能源消费

Fig. 4 The primary energy consumptions in different scenarios

图5 智能互联情景较基准情景下不同部门的CO2减排量注：每个部门的上、下线代表该部门在基准情景与智能互联情景下的碳排放量。

Fig. 5 CO2 emission reduction in different sectors between the baseline and intelligent interconnection scenarios

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智能互联重塑中国能源体系

Research on intelligent interconnection reshaping China’s energy system

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