基于LEAP模型的城市交通低碳发展路径研究——以广州市为例

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以广州市为例,应用长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）模型,通过设置政策情景、低碳情景和绿色低碳情景,模拟不同发展情景下广州交通领域未来的能源消费需求和CO₂排放趋势,分析城市低碳发展的方向和路径。结果显示,随着城镇化进程的加快和生产生活运输需求的增加,广州交通领域碳排放总量将持续增长,但增长速度有所放缓。政策情景下,广州交通领域的CO₂排放将于2035年左右达到峰值,严重滞后于广州市提出的碳排放总量达峰目标;低碳和绿色低碳情景下,通过加大低碳政策措施的力度,达峰时间有望分别提前到2025年和2023年。要实现城市交通的低碳发展,促进交通碳排放提前达峰,需要大力发展铁路和水路运输,全面落实公交优先发展战略,有效控制小汽车数量和出行频率,不断提高交通工具的清洁化和能效水平,逐步形成各种运输方式协调发展的综合交通运输体系,推动城市交通低碳发展。

关键词: 长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）模型, 低碳交通, 情景分析, 发展路径, 广州市

Abstract:

Taking the city of Guangzhou as a case study, a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP)-Guangzhou Transportation model was developed to simulate future energy consumption and CO₂ emission trends during 2017-2050 under three scenarios: policy scenario (PS), low-carbon scenario (LCS), and green and low-carbon scenario (GLCS). Then the emission reduction potentials, the development direction and path of transportation sector were discussed. Results show that CO₂ emission of transportation sector in Guangzhou will peak around 2035 under PS scenario, but with more stringent policies in the LCS and GLCS scenarios, the peak timing is expected to advance to 2025 and 2023, respectively. In order to promote the low-carbon development of urban transportation, it is necessary to develop railway and waterway transportation to form an integrated transportation system; fully implement the public transportation priority strategy to effectively control the number and the frequency of private cars; and promote the cleanliness of energy structure and the energy efficiency.

Key words: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model, Low-carbon transportation, Scenario analysis, Development path, Guangzhou

黄莹,郭洪旭,廖翠萍,赵黛青. 基于LEAP模型的城市交通低碳发展路径研究——以广州市为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(6): 670-683.

Ying HUANG,Hong-Xu GUO,Cui-Ping LIAO,Dai-Qing ZHAO. Study on low-carbon development path of urban transportation sector based on LEAP model—take Guangzhou as an example[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(6): 670-683.

图/表 14

图1 广州市交通能源消费(a)和碳排放(b)现状

Fig. 1 Energy consumption (a) and CO2 emission (b) status of transportation sector in Guangzhou

图2 广州市交通碳排放结构变化

Fig. 2 Changes in CO2 emission of Guangzhou’s transportation sector

图3 LEAP广州交通模型结构

Fig. 3 Structure of LEAP-Guangzhou transportation model

表1 情景设置及描述

Table 1 Scenarios setting

表2 各情景下广州市内客运结构（按客运量计算）

Table 2 Guangzhou’s structure of future city passenger traffic volume by scenarios %

表3 各情景下广州市际客运周转量结构

Table 3 Guangzhou’s future intercity passenger turnover structure by scenarios %

表4 各情景下广州市货运周转量结构

Table 4 Guangzhou’s future freight turnover structure by scenarios %

图4 广州市交通领域能源消费结构

Fig. 4 The energy structure of Guangzhou’s transportation sector

图5 广州市交通领域到2050年的能源消费需求(a)和CO2排放(b)趋势

Fig. 5 The trends of energy consumption demand (a) and CO2 emission (b) in Guangzhou’s transportation sector by 2050

图6 广州市交通领域分交通类型未来减排潜力

Fig. 6 CO2 emission reduction potential of Guangzhou’s transportation sector under different scenarios

表5 广州市交通运输领域的碳减排潜力汇总

Table 5 Summary of emission reduction potentials in Guangzhou’s transportation sector

图7 广州市货运交通排放路径

Fig. 7 CO2 emission paths of Guangzhou’s freight traffic

图8 广州市际客运交通排放路径

Fig. 8 CO2 emission paths of Guangzhou’s intercity passenger traffic

图9 广州市内客运交通排放路径

Fig. 9 CO2 emission paths of Guangzhou’s city passenger traffic

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