1961—2018年长江中下游地区暴雨过程的客观识别及其变化特征

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.090

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 329-339.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.090

1961—2018年长江中下游地区暴雨过程的客观识别及其变化特征

高筱懿¹(), 赵俊虎², 周杰³, 钱忠华¹(), 封国林¹^,²

1 扬州大学物理科学与技术学院,扬州 225000
2 国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081
3 重庆市气候中心,重庆 400000

收稿日期:2020-04-24 修回日期:2020-07-28 出版日期:2021-05-30 发布日期:2021-06-01
通讯作者: 钱忠华
作者简介:高筱懿,女,硕士研究生, gaoxiaoyi1996@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41675050);国家自然科学基金项目(42075017);国家自然科学基金项目(41875093);国家自然科学基金项目(41530531);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502303)

Objective identification and variation characteristics of regional heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2018

GAO Xiao-Yi¹(), ZHAO Jun-Hu², ZHOU Jie³, QIAN Zhong-Hua¹(), FENG Guo-Lin¹^,²

1 School of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225000, China
2 Laboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3 Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 400000, China

Received:2020-04-24 Revised:2020-07-28 Online:2021-05-30 Published:2021-06-01
Contact: QIAN Zhong-Hua

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用区域性极端事件客观识别方法（OITREE）和长江中下游地区381站逐日降水资料对1961—2018年长江中下游地区的暴雨过程进行了客观识别。共识别挑选出245次区域性暴雨过程。长江中下游地区暴雨过程持续时间以2~3 d为主,最长为8 d,累积强度主要集中于（2~4）×10³ mm之间,累积面积主要集中于（2~5）×10⁵ km²之间。长江中下游地区暴雨过程主要发生在夏季,尤其是6—7月。湖北东南部、安徽南部和江西北部是长江中下游地区暴雨过程发生最频繁的地区。长江中下游地区暴雨过程既有长期变化趋势,又有年代际变化特征,近58年来发生频次显著增加（0.3次/(10 a)）,暴雨过程频次及5项指标均呈现出明显的年代际变化特征,20世纪60—80年代末期为暴雨过程偏少阶段,90年代呈增加趋势并在90年代末期达到峰值,在21世纪初急速下降后又有缓慢增加趋势。

关键词: 长江中下游地区, 区域性暴雨过程, 气候特征, 客观识别

Abstract:

The regional heavy rainfall events (RHREs) are identified by using the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events (OITREE) based on the daily precipitation data of 381 stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) from 1961 to 2018. There are 245 RHREs in total in the MLYR. The duration of the RHREs in the MLYR is mainly 2 to 3 days, and the longest is 8 days. The cumulative intensity is mainly between (2-4) ×10 ³ mm, and the cumulative area is about (2-5) × 10 ⁵ km². The RHREs in the MLYR mainly occur in summer, especially from June to July. Southeast Hubei, southern Anhui and Northern Jiangxi are the areas where the RHREs occur most frequently in the MLYR. The RHREs in the MLYR has both long-term trends and interdecadal changes. The frequency of occurrence has increased significantly in the past 58 years (0.3 times per decade). The frequency of RHREs and the five indicators all show obvious characteristics of interdecadal variability. From the 1960s to the late 1980s, the RHREs were relatively rare. It showed an increasing trend in the 1990s and reached a peak at the end of the period, after a sharp decline at the beginning of 21st century, there was a slow increase trend.

Key words: Middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, The regional heavy rainfall events, Climatic characteristics, Objective identification

高筱懿, 赵俊虎, 周杰, 钱忠华, 封国林. 1961—2018年长江中下游地区暴雨过程的客观识别及其变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(3): 329-339.

GAO Xiao-Yi, ZHAO Jun-Hu, ZHOU Jie, QIAN Zhong-Hua, FENG Guo-Lin. Objective identification and variation characteristics of regional heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2018[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(3): 329-339.

图/表 10

图1 长江中下游地区站点分布

Fig. 1 Distribution of stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

表1 OITREE方法识别长江中下游地区暴雨过程的参数赋值表

Table 1 Parameters for OITREE method to identify the regional heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

表2 1961—2018年长江中下游地区排名前12位的区域暴雨过程

Table 2 The top 12 regional heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2018

图2 综合强度前2位的暴雨过程极端强度空间分布

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of extreme intensity of the regional heavy rainfall events with the comprehensive intensity of top 1-2

图3 1961—2018年长江中下游地区暴雨过程发生频次的年际变化

Fig. 3 Interannual changes in the frequency of the regional heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2018

图4 1961—2018年长江中下游地区暴雨过程5项指标的年际变化

Fig. 4 Inter-annual changes of the five indicators of the regional heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2018 (a) extreme intensity, (b) cumulative intensity, (c) maximum area, (d) cumulative area, (e) duration

图5 1961—2018年长江中下游地区暴雨过程发生频次的空间分布

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of frequency of the regional heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2018

图6 1961—2018年长江中下游地区月平均降水量(a)和暴雨过程逐月发生频次(b)

Fig. 6 Monthly average precipitation (a) and the frequency of the regional heavy rainfall events (b) in the middle and lower reach of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2018

图7 1961—2018年长江中下游地区不同等级暴雨过程的持续时间、累积强度和累积面积分布

Fig. 7 Distribution of duration (a-e), cumulative intensity (f-j) and cumulative area (k-o) of the regional heavy rainfall events of different levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2018

图8 长江中下游地区轻度(a),中度(b),重度(c)和极端(d)暴雨过程的站点频次分布

Fig. 8 Site frequency distribution of mild (a), moderate (b), severe (c), extreme (d) regional heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

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1961—2018年长江中下游地区暴雨过程的客观识别及其变化特征

Objective identification and variation characteristics of regional heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2018

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