共享社会经济路径（SSPs）下2020—2050年中国分产业产值时空变化

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.221

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据IPCC共享社会经济路径（SSPs）全球框架,基于中国国内生产总值历史资料、人口普查数据及历年各省统计年鉴,对柯布-道格拉斯（Cobb-Douglas）经济预估模型的劳动参与率、资本产出弹性、全要素生产率等参数进行本地化,预估分析2020—2050年中国（除港、澳、台外）31个省（区、市）第一、第二和第三产业产值变化。结果表明：(1)不同SSPs路径下,中国各省分产业产值的变化趋势有显著差异。第一、第二产业产值变化趋势相同,但第二产业产值远高于第一产业。第一、第二产业在SSP1、SSP2和SSP5路径下持续增加,在SSP3和SSP4路径下呈现先增后减的趋势。第三产业产值在5种路径下均呈持续上升趋势。(2)三产产值增速总体呈下降趋势,产业间增速及物质需求的变化导致第一、第二产业对国内生产总值的贡献逐渐减少,第三产业比重增加,产业结构逐渐优化。(3)不同的社会经济发展政策对中国分省分产业产值影响显著。2020—2050年,三产产值基本呈现东高西低的空间特点。与2010年相比,2050年三产产值均在东部经济区增加最多,第一、第二产业产值在东北经济区增加最少,而第三产业在西部经济区最少。2050年,中国各省第一产业产值对经济贡献普遍低于8%,第二产业在25%~30%,第三产业普遍高于60%。东部经济区第三产业产值对经济总量的贡献始终高于西部,产业结构更为合理。

关键词: 柯布-道格拉斯经济预估模型（Cobb-Douglas）, 产业产值, 共享社会经济路径（SSPs）, 中国, 分省

Abstract:

Based on the time series of the gross domestic product and the demographic census of China, and statistical yearbooks in 31 provinces (China mainland), the labor participation rate, capital output elasticity and total factor productivity were localized in order to build the Cobb-Douglas model under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework. The changes of national and provincial output value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries were analyzed for the first half of the 21st century. The results show that: (1) The output value of three industries in China will be different significantly under SSPs. The primary and secondary industries show the same trend, but output value of the latter will be higher than that of the former. And they will increase under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5, while decline under SSP3 and SSP4. The tertiary industry will continuously grow under all SSPs. (2) The growth rate of output value of three industries will decrease. The differences of industrial growth rates and material and cultural need lead to the gradual decrease of contribution of the primary and the secondary industries to economy, while the increase of contribution of the tertiary industry. (3) Different social and economic development policies have significant impacts on the provincial output value of three industries. Spatially, the output value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries is high in the east but low in the west in China in 2020-2050. By the mid-21st century, increase in the output value in the eastern region will be the highest for three industries. The increase of the output value of the primary and secondary industries in the northeast region will be the lowest, while that of the tertiary industry in the western region will be the lowest. In 2050, contribution of the primary industry to provincial GDP will be less than 8% and that of the tertiary industry will be higher than 60% generally. Meanwhile, share of the secondary industry will be 25%-30%. The contribution of the output value of the tertiary industry to GDP in the eastern region will be always higher than that in the west, and industrial structure of the eastern region is more reasonable.

Key words: Cobb-Douglas model, Output value from industries, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), China, Province

潘金玉, 苏布达, 王艳君, 景丞, 翟建青, 姜彤. 共享社会经济路径（SSPs）下2020—2050年中国分产业产值时空变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(6): 725-737.

PAN Jin-Yu, SU Bu-Da, WANG Yan-Jun, JING Cheng, ZHAI Jian-Qing, JIANG Tong. Spatio-temporal changes of output value from the primary, secondary and tertiary industries for 2020―2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(6): 725-737.

图/表 7

表1 经济预估模型的参数初始值及2050年SSPs路径下参数假设

Table 1 The initial parameters of economic projection model in 2010 and the assumptions parameters for SSPs in 2050

图1 2011—2018年中国第一、第二和第三产业产值统计数据与SSP2路径预估结果的比较

Fig. 1 Comparison of the recorded values of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China for 2011-2018 and the projected results under SSP2

图2 2000—2050年中国第一、第二和第三产业产值变化

Fig. 2 Output values of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China for 2000-2050

图3 2000—2050年中国第一、第二和第三产业产值增速变化

Fig. 3 Growth rate of output values of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China for 2000-2050

表2 5种路径下21世纪前半叶中国三产结构变化

Table 2 Changes of industrial structure in China during the first half of the 21st century under SSPs

图4 2010年及5种路径下2050年中国第一、第二和第三产业产值空间分布

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of output value of primary industry, secondary industry, and tertiary industry in China in 2010 and 2050 under SSPs

图5 SSP2路径下2020年(a)、2035年(b) 和2050年(c)中国分省产业结构

Fig. 5 Provincial industrial structures in China in 2020 (a), 2035 (b) and 2050 (c) under SSP2

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