基于共享社会经济路径的中国经济发展趋势及其影响要素分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.028

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于最新的经济和人口普查及逐年统计年鉴,采用柯布?道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)经济预测模型,分析了共享社会经济路径(SSPs)框架下中国“全面二孩”政策后2010—2100年经济发展趋势,并解析了劳动投入量、资本投入量和全要素生产率对经济发展的贡献率。研究发现：(1)不同的社会经济发展政策下,21世纪中国经济均呈增加趋势,GDP增速在2030年前基本维持在6%上下,但2030—2060年代迅速下降,2070年代起SSP1和SSP4路径下增幅低于0.5%,SSP2、SSP3和SSP5路径下增幅保持在0.5%~1.5%。(2)影响经济发展的三要素中,劳动投入量在SSP3路径下先减后增,于2060年代达到谷值;在其他路径下均先增后减,于2020年代达到峰值。资本投入量在SSP1路径下持续增加,2080年代起趋于平缓;其他路径下均呈持续增加趋势,但在SSP4路径下,在2060和2070年代有所下降。全要素生产率在所有路径下均呈增加趋势。(3)改革开放以来,资本投入量是影响我国经济增长最主要的因素。未来,SSP1和SSP2路径下,全要素生产率逐渐成为经济发展的主导因素;而SSP5路径下,资本投入量仍是影响经济发展的主要因素。

关键词: 共享社会经济路径(SSPs), 经济预测, 劳动投入量, 资本投入量, 全要素生产率

Abstract:

Based on the latest economic and demographic census and annual statistical yearbooks, development of national economy for 2010-2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was predicted in China using Cobb-Douglas economic model by taking the “Universal Two-Child” policy into account. And contributions of three main influencing factors, namely, labor input, capital input and total factor productivity, to economy were analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) under SSPs, economy will continuously grow in China. The growth rate of GDP will remain around 6% before 2030, but a rapid decline is predicted in the 2030s-2060s. Since the 2070s, growth rate of GDP will be lower than 0.5% under SSP1 and SSP4, and be 0.5%-1.5% under SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5. (2) Among three main influencing factors of economic development, the labor input will reduce until the 2060s and then increase under SSP3. On the contrary, it will rise up to peaking in the 2020s and then decrease under other SSPs. When comes to the capital input, it will keep rising up and gradually become steady from the 2080s under SSP1 but will show an increase trend under SSP2、SSP3 and SSP5 with a slight decrease in the 2060s and 2070s under SSP4. Total factor productivity will increase under all SSPs. (3) Since the reform and opening up in 1978, capital input has been the most important factor affecting economy in China. In the future, total factor productivity will gradually become the main factor to economic development under SSP1 and SSP2. However, capital input will continuously play a major role in the economic development under SSP5.

Key words: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Economic prediction, Labor input, Capital input, Total factor productivity

潘金玉,苏布达,翟建青,王艳君,姜彤. 基于共享社会经济路径的中国经济发展趋势及其影响要素分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(6): 607-616.

Jin-Yu PAN,Bu-Da SU,Jian-Qing ZHAI,Yan-Jun WANG,Tong JIANG. Development of economy and its influencing factors in China under the shared socioeconomic pathways[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(6): 607-616.

图/表 5

表1 共享社会经济路径下经济预测模型的参数假设

Table 1 Assumptions on the parameters of economic prediction model for SSPs

图1 2011—2017年GDP统计数据和SSP2路径预测结果的比较

Fig. 1 Comparison of the recorded and predicted GDP under SSP2 in 2011-2017

图2 不同人口政策下中国经济、经济增速和人口变化趋势

Fig. 2 Economy (a, b), economic growth rate (c, d) and population (e, f) predicted in China under the universal two-child policy (left) and the selective two-child policy (right)

图3 经济影响要素的预测(a)劳动投入量,(b)资本投入量和(c)全要素生产率

Fig. 3 Prediction of the influencing factors of economy (a) labor input, (b) capital input, (c) total factor productivity

图4 SSP1、SSP2和SSP5下影响中国GDP增长的经济要素贡献率

Fig. 4 Contribution of influencing factors to increase of GDP in China under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5

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