气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (1): 52-60.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.162

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961-2014年新疆降水极值概率特征及拟合不确定性分析

江远安1,尹宜舟1,2,陈鹏翔1,孙赫敏2,樊 静1   

  1. 1 新疆气象局气候中心,乌鲁木齐 830002;
    2 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-11 修回日期:2016-12-21 出版日期:2017-01-30 发布日期:2017-01-30
  • 通讯作者: 尹宜舟 E-mail:yinyz@cma.gov.cn
  • 作者简介:江远安,女,高级工程师,jya_69@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201334);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206014);山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程项目《山洪灾害风险区划和影响预评估能力建设》

Study on Probabilistic Characteristic and Uncertainty in Fitting of Precipitation Extremes over Xinjiang During 1961-2014

Jiang Yuan’an1, Yin Yizhou1, 2, Chen Pengxiang1, Sun Hemin2, Fan Jing1   

  1. 1 Xinjiang Climatic Center, Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002, China;
    2 National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-08-11 Revised:2016-12-21 Online:2017-01-30 Published:2017-01-30

摘要:

本文采用多种函数初步探讨了1961—2014 年新疆地区日降水极值概率拟合分析中的不确定性。结果表明:新疆气候在暖干向暖湿转变背景下,更易出现极端强降水事件,由此影响极端降水拟合的不确定性;在统计函数选择以及重现期极值拟合中存在不确定性,因此建议在进行新疆区域降水极值分析时选择整体表现较好的GEV、Gen.Logistic、Log-Pearson 3、Pearson 6 和Wakeby 函数进行合成分析,在进行单站分析时给出具有界限范围的降水极值综合曲线图,以此减少来自函数方面的不确定性。

关键词: 降水极值, 概率拟合, 不确定性, 新疆

Abstract:

The uncertainty of the probabilistic distribution of precipitation extremes over Xinjiang during 1961-2014 was discussed by using multi-function method. Results suggest that precipitation extremes easily occur in Xinjiang against the background of the climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet, which could take impact on the fitting of precipitation extremes. The uncertainty exists in the selection of functions and extreme estimations. In order to reduce the uncertainty, it’s suggested to apply the composite analysis with results of GEV, Gen. Logistic, Log-Pearson 3, Pearson 6 and Wakeby functions, when the study is conducted over the whole Xinjiang. For the single station analysis, the compositive curve graph with boundary of the extreme values is suggested to be provided.

Key words: precipitation extremes, probabilistic analysis, uncertainty, Xinjiang

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