关键词: 可计算一般均衡模型, 广东省, 碳交易, 经济影响

Abstract: Using a dynamic two-region computable general equilibrium model, this study conducted a quantitative assessment of the impacts of carbon emission trading on the economy of Guangdong Province, the participating sectors and the carbon trading prices. The results show that, in accordance with the energy conservation scenario to be completed by 2015 (19.5% decline in carbon intensity), GDP will lose 0.7% compared with the baseline scenario; according to a low-carbon scenario to be completed by 2015 (20.5% decline in carbon intensity), GDP will lose 0.9% compared with the baseline scenario; if carbon trading policy is implemented in the low-carbon scenario, GDP will lose 0.8% relative to the baseline scenario. The results show that the carbon trading policy can save about 9 billion yuan RMB. This analysis supports Guangdong Province to achieve both economic development and carbon emission reduction target.

Key words: computable general equilibrium model, Guangdong Province, carbon trading, economic impact