气候变化研究进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (3): 157-164.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.03.001

• 气候系统变化 •    下一篇

2℃全球变暖背景下青藏高原平均气候和极端气候事件变化

李红梅,李林   

  1. 青海省气候中心,西宁 810001
  • 收稿日期:2015-01-16 修回日期:2015-05-08 出版日期:2015-05-31 发布日期:2015-05-30
  • 通讯作者: 李红梅 E-mail:lhm761026@tom.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气候变化专项

Mean and Extreme Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau with a 2℃ Global Warming

Li Hongmei, Li Lin   

  1. Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001, China
  • Received:2015-01-16 Revised:2015-05-08 Online:2015-05-31 Published:2015-05-30

摘要: 利用CMIP5耦合模式RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景预估结果,以1890—1900年为基准气候,确定了2℃全球变暖时间、对应时期青藏高原平均气候和极端气候事件变化幅度,多模式集合平均结果表明:RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2℃全球变暖分别发生在2063年、2040年和2036年;对应着2℃全球变暖,三种情景下青藏高原平均气温分别升高2.99℃、3.22℃和3.28℃,均超过全球2℃的升温水平;年降水量亦增加,分别增加8.35%、7.16%和7.63%。受气温升高和降水量增多影响,RCP4.5情景下霜冻日数、冰封日数减少,暖夜日数、暖昼日数增多;RCP4.5情景下中雨日数、强降水量、降水强度均增加,持续干期天数减少。从各地平均气候和极端气候事件变化结果来看,柴达木盆地是青藏高原气候变化的敏感区。

关键词: 2℃全球变暖, 青藏高原, 平均气候状态, 极端气候事件

Abstract: Based on the output of CMIP5 coupling models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the time with a 2℃ global warming was detected, taking 1890-1900 as a baseline climatology. The mean climate change and extreme climate events over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau at that time were compared with the baseline climatology. The results show that 2℃ global warming will appear respectively in 2063, 2040 and 2036 under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios, and the temperature of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau will increase 2.99℃, 3.22℃ and 3.28℃ respectively, which are higher than 2℃ of global warming level. The annual precipitation will also increase, and the anomaly percentage is 8.35%, 7.16% and 7.63% respectively. Affected by the temperature and precipitation increasing, the frost days and frozen days will reduce; the days of warm night and warm day will increase; the moderate rain days, strong precipitation, and precipitation intensity will increase; the days of continuous drought will decrease under RCP4.5 scenario. Chaidam Basin is a sensitive area to climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau according to the change results of mean climate and extreme climate events.

Key words: 2℃ global warming, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, mean climate, extreme climate events

京ICP备11008704号-4
版权所有 © 《气候变化研究进展》编辑部
地址:北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号 邮编:100081 电话/传真:(010)58995171 E-mail:accr@cma.gov.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn