碳排放权交易的减污降碳协同效应及影响机制

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.092

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

减污降碳协同共治能够缓解我国环境质量改善和温室气体减排的双重压力。碳排放权交易是减碳的关键市场手段，厘清其对大气污染治理的协同作用至关重要。文中基于2006—2019年我国省级面板数据，使用双重差分法（DID）分析了碳排放权交易试点政策的协同作用，并通过中介效应模型检验了其影响机制。研究发现：碳交易试点具有显著的减污降碳协同效应，其中CO₂与SO₂的协同控制效果最显著，但政策效应的持续性有待增强；政策能通过降低能源消费量、改善能源结构这两条路径降低CO₂与大气污染物排放，但调整产业结构尚不存在该传导作用。为增强碳排放权交易的减污降碳协同效应，文中从加强碳交易监管力度、坚持能源消费提质降耗、扩大全国碳市场行业覆盖范围3个方面提出了政策建议。

关键词: 碳排放权交易, 双重差分法（DID）, 中介效应模型, 协同效应

Abstract:

The synergistic management of atmospheric pollutant and carbon emission can alleviate the dual pressure of improving environmental quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China. It is crucial to clarify the synergy of carbon emissions trading, which is a key market-based instrument for carbon reduction. This paper examines the synergistic reduction effects of carbon emissions trading pilot policies on CO₂, SO₂, dust and PM_2.5 using panel data of 30 provincial regions in China from 2006 to 2019 based on DID method, and explores the impact mechanism of the policies through mediating effects model. The results show that the policy has significant pollution and CO₂ synergistic reduction effects, among which the synergistic effect of CO₂ and SO₂ is the most significant, but the long-term effects of the policy need to be enhanced. The mechanism analysis shows that carbon market can reduce CO₂ and atmospheric pollutant by reducing energy consumption and adjusting energy structure, but the industrial structure does not have this transmission effect yet. In summary, this paper puts forward three suggestions: strengthen the supervision of carbon market and establish a sound long-term mechanism; insist on reducing energy consumption and optimizing energy structure; expand the range of industries covered by the national carbon market.

Key words: Carbon emissions trading, Difference-in-Differences (DID), Meditation effect model, Synergistic effect

丁丽媛, 王艳华, 王克. 碳排放权交易的减污降碳协同效应及影响机制[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(6): 786-798.

DING Li-Yuan, WANG Yan-Hua, WANG Ke. The synergistic effect of carbon emission trading on pollution and carbon reduction and the influence mechanism[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(6): 786-798.

图/表 11

图1 政策影响机制

Fig. 1 The mechanism of carbon emission trading

表1 变量说明与数据来源

Table 1 Definition and source of primary variables

表2 描述性统计

Table 2 Descriptive summary

表3 双重差分回归结果

Table 3 DID model results

表4 平行趋势检验结果

Table 4 Parallel trend test results

图2 碳交易政策动态效应注：时间横坐标中pre_*为政策前，current为政策年，post_*为政策后。

Fig. 2 Dynamic effects of carbon emission trading policies

表5 稳健性检验结果

Table 5 Robustness test results

表6 PSM-DID估计结果

Table 6 PSM-DID model results

表7 中介效应检验：能源消费量

Table 7 Analysis results of mediation effect: energy consumtion

表8 中介效应检验：能源结构

Table 8 Analysis results of mediation effect: energy structure

表9 中介效应检验：产业结构

Table 9 Analysis results of mediation effect: industry structure

参考文献 31

[1]	王金南, 宁淼, 严刚, 等. 实施气候友好的大气污染防治战略[J]. 中国软科学, 2010 (10): 28-36, 111.
	Wang J N, Ning M, Yan G, et al. Implementing climate-friendly strategy for air polution prevention and control[J]. China Soft Science, 2010 (10): 28-36, 111 (in Chinese)
[2]	毛显强, 曾桉, 邢有凯, 等. 从理念到行动: 温室气体与局地污染物减排的协同效益与协同控制研究综述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17 (3): 255-267.
	Mao X Q, Zeng A, Xing Y K, et al. From concept to action: a review of research on co-benefits and co-control of greenhouse gases and local air pollutants reductions[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17 (3): 255-267 (in Chinese)
[3]	IPCC. Climate change 2001: mitigation[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001
[4]	Burtraw D, Krupnick A, Palmer K, et al. Ancillary benefits of reduced air pollution in the US from moderate greenhouse gas mitigation policies in the electricity sector[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2003, 45 (3): 650-673 doi: 10.1016/S0095-0696(02)00022-0 URL
[5]	Thompson T M, Rausch S, Saari R K, et al. A systems approach to evaluating the air quality co-benefits of US carbon policies[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4 (10): 917-923 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2342
[6]	Reis L A, Drouet L, Tavoni M. Internalising health-economic impacts of air pollution into climate policy: a global modelling study[J]. Lancet Planetary Health, 2022, 6 (1): 40-48
[7]	顾阿伦, 滕飞, 冯相昭. 主要部门污染物控制政策的温室气体协同效果分析与评价[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26 (2): 10-17.
	Gu A L, Teng F, Feng X Z. Assessment and analysis on co-benefits of pollution control and greenhouse gases emission reduction in key sectors[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26 (2): 10-17 (in Chinese)
[8]	生态环境部环境规划院气候变化与环境政策研究中心. 中国城市二氧化碳和大气污染协同管理评估报告[R/OL]. 2020 [2023-04-27]. http://www.cityghg.com/file/jflyfox/cityghg/ueditor/file/20221016/20221016_171621_822291.pdf (in Chinese)
[9]	Murray B C, Maniloff P T. Why have greenhouse emissions in RGGI states declined? An econometric attribution to economic, energy market, and policy factors[J]. Energy Economics, 2015, 51: 581-589 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.07.013 URL
[10]	Bayer P, Aklin M. The European Union Emissions Trading System reduced CO₂ emissions despite low prices[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of America, 2020, 117 (16): 8804-8812
[11]	李广明, 张维洁. 中国碳交易下的工业碳排放与减排机制研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2017, 27 (10): 141-148.
	Li G M, Zhang W J. Research on industrial carbon emissions and emissions reduction mechanism in China’s ETS[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2017, 27 (10): 141-148 (in Chinese)
[12]	Gao Y N, Li M, Xue J J, et al. Evaluation of effectiveness of China’s carbon emissions trading scheme in carbon mitigation[J]. Energy Economics, 2020: 90
[13]	周迪, 刘奕淳. 中国碳交易试点政策对城市碳排放绩效的影响及机制[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40 (1): 453-464.
	Zhou D, Liu Y C. Impact of China’s carbon emission trading policy on the performance of urban carbon emission and its mechanism[J]. China Environmental Science, 2020, 40 (1): 453-464 (in Chinese)
[14]	吴茵茵, 齐杰, 鲜琴, 等. 中国碳市场的碳减排效应研究: 基于市场机制与行政干预的协同作用视角[J]. 中国工业经济, 2021, 401 (8): 114-132.
	Wu Y Y, Qi J, Xian Q, et al. The carbon emission reduction effect of China’s carbon market: from the perspective of the coordination between market mechanism and administrative intervention[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2021, 401 (8): 114-132 (in Chinese)
[15]	van Vuuren D P, Cofala J, Eerens H E, et al. Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe[J]. Energy Policy, 2006, 34 (4): 444-460 doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2004.06.012 URL
[16]	任亚运, 傅京燕. 碳交易的减排及绿色发展效应研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2019, 29 (5): 11-20.
	Ren Y Y, Fu J Y. Research on the effect of carbon emissions trading on emission reduction and green development[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2019, 29 (5): 11-20 (in Chinese)
[17]	曾诗鸿, 李璠, 翁智雄, 等. 我国碳交易试点政策的减排效应及地区差异[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022, 42 (4): 1922-1933.
	Zeng S H, Li F, Weng Z X, et al. Study on the emission reduction effect of China’s carbon trading pilot policy and regional differences[J]. China Environmental Science, 2022, 42 (4): 1922-1933 (in Chinese)
[18]	薛飞, 周民良. 中国碳交易市场规模的减排效应研究[J]. 华东经济管理, 2021, 35 (6): 11-21.
	Xue F, Zhou M L. Research on the emission reduction effect of the scale of China’s carbon trading market[J]. East China Economic Management, 2021, 35 (6): 11-21 (in Chinese)
[19]	李治国, 王杰, 赵园春. 碳排放权交易的协同减排效应: 内在机制与中国经验[J]. 系统工程, 2022, 40 (3): 1-12.
	Li Z G, Wang J, Zhao Y C. The synergistic emision reduction effect of carbon emisions trading: internal mechanism and China’s experience[J]. Systems Enginering, 2022, 40 (3): 1-12 (in Chinese)
[20]	Yang J Z, Zhao Y, Cao J, et al. Co-benefits of carbon and pollution control policies on air quality and health till 2030 in China[J]. Environment International, 2021: 152
[21]	Liu J Y, Woodward R T, Zhang Y J. Has carbon emissions trading reduced PM_2.5 in China?[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2021, 55 (10): 6631-6643 doi: 10.1021/acs.est.1c00248 URL
[22]	张瑜, 孙倩, 薛进军, 等. 减污降碳的协同效应分析及其路径探究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2022, 32 (5): 1-13.
	Zhang Y, Sun Q, Xue J J, et al. Synergistic effects of pollution control and carbon reduction and their pathways[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2022, 32 (5): 1-13 (in Chinese)
[23]	李胜兰, 林沛娜. 我国碳排放权交易政策完善与促进地区污染减排效应研究: 基于省级面板数据的双重差分分析[J]. 中山大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, 60 (5): 182-194.
	Li S L, Lin P N. Regional emission reduction promoted by China’s carbon emission trading scheme: a Difference-in-Differences analysis with evidence from provincial panel data[J]. Journal of Sun Yat-sen University (Social Science Edition), 2020, 60 (5): 182-194 (in Chinese)
[24]	赵立祥, 赵蓉, 张雪薇. 碳交易政策对我国大气污染的协同减排有效性研究[J]. 产经评论, 2020, 11 (3): 148-160.
	Zhao L X, Zhao R, Zhang X W. Study on the effectiveness of carbon trading policy on the coordinated emission reduction of air pollution in China[J]. Industrial Economic Review, 2020, 11 (3): 148-160 (in Chinese)
[25]	黄向岚, 张训常, 刘晔. 我国碳交易政策实现环境红利了吗?[J]. 经济评论, 2018 (6): 86-99.
	Huang X L, Zhang X C, Liu Y. Does China’s carbon emissions trading policy fulfill the environmental dividend?[J]. Economic Review, 2018 (6): 86-99 (in Chinese)
[26]	任晓松, 马茜, 刘宇佳, 等. 碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响及传导机制[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41 (11): 5427-5437.
	Ren X S, Ma Q, Liu Y J, et al. The impact of carbon trading policy on industrial carbon productivity and its transmission mechanism[J]. China Environmental Science, 2021, 41 (11): 5427-5437 (in Chinese)
[27]	van Donkelaar A, Hammer M S, Bindle L, et al. Monthly global estimates of fine particulate matter and their uncertainty[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2021, 55 (22): 15287-15300 doi: 10.1021/acs.est.1c05309 URL
[28]	Baron R M, Kenny D A. The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1986, 51 (6): 1173 doi: 10.1037//0022-3514.51.6.1173 pmid: 3806354
[29]	李志学, 张肖杰, 董英宇. 中国碳排放权交易市场运行状况、问题和对策研究[J]. 生态环境学报, 2014, 23 (11): 1876-1882.
	Li Z X, Zhang X J, Dong Y Y. Research on China’s carbon emissions trading market status, problems and measures[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2014, 23 (11): 1876-1882 (in Chinese)
[30]	王灿, 邓红梅, 郭凯迪, 等. 温室气体和空气污染物协同治理研究展望[J]. 中国环境管理, 2020, 12 (4): 5-12.
	Wang C, Deng H M, Guo K D, et al. Research progress on cooperative governance of greenhouse gases and air pollutants[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Management, 2020, 12 (4): 5-12 (in Chinese)
[31]	林伯强. 碳中和进程中的中国经济高质量增长[J]. 经济研究, 2022, 57: 56-71.
	Lin B Q. China’s high-quality economic growth in the process of carbon neutrality[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2022, 57: 56-71 (in Chinese)