气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 177-187.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.104

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

SSP“双碳”路径下赣江流域径流变化趋势

杨晨辉, 王艳君, 苏布达, 蒲阳, 王媛, 姜彤()   

  1. 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京 210044
  • 收稿日期:2021-06-16 修回日期:2021-07-31 出版日期:2022-03-30 发布日期:2021-12-23
  • 通讯作者: 姜彤
  • 作者简介:杨晨辉,男,硕士研究生
  • 基金资助:
    教育事业发展2021年双一流人才启动(1521582101003);中国气象局气候变化专项“鄱阳湖典型流域大气降水对地表水质影响研究”(CCSF)

Runoff variation trend of Ganjiang River basin under SSP “Double Carbon” path

YANG Chen-Hui, WANG Yan-Jun, SU Bu-Da, PU Yang, WANG Yuan, JIANG Tong()   

  1. Institute for Disaster Risk Management (IDRM)/School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Received:2021-06-16 Revised:2021-07-31 Online:2022-03-30 Published:2021-12-23
  • Contact: JIANG Tong

摘要:

根据共享社会经济情景(SSPs)分为“双碳”路径(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP4-3.4、SSP4-6.0)和“高碳”路径(SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)。在碳达峰(2028—2032年)和碳中和(2058—2062年)两个时期,采用5个气候模式,7个情景驱动SWAT水文模型,分析赣江流域径流演变特征,主要结论如下:1961—2017年赣江流域观测到的年均气温以0.17℃/(10 a)的速率呈显著上升趋势(p<0.01),降水以17 mm/(10 a)的速率呈不显著上升。“双碳”和“高碳”路径下,2021—2100年赣江流域均呈现暖湿态,气温持续变暖,降水有所增加;碳达峰、碳中和时期,“双碳”路径下年径流呈现增加趋势;“双碳”路径下,月径流在汛期呈现增加趋势,枯水期在SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP4-3.4下呈现增加趋势,在SSP4-6.0下呈现减少趋势。“双碳”路径下极端水文事件强度将可能小于“高碳”路径。

关键词: 共享社会经济情景(SSPs), 径流变化, 赣江流域

Abstract:

According to the target and the peak time of carbon emissions under SSPs scenarios, SSPs were divided into “double carbon” pathway (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0) and “high carbon” pathway (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The runoff evolution characteristics of Ganjiang River basin were analyzed in two periods of peak carbon dioxide emissions (2028-2032) and carbon neutral (2058-2062) based on the SWAT hydrological model. The results are as follows. (1) Annual mean temperature in the Ganjiang River basin from 1961 to 2017 showed a significant upward trend with a rate of 0.17℃/(10 a), while the precipitation increase slightly with a rate of 17 mm/(10 a). Under the “double carbon” and “high carbon” pathways, the Ganjiang River basin will be in a warm and wet state from 2021 to 2100, with temperature rising and precipitation increasing. (2) In the periods of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutral, annual runoff shows increasing tendency during “double carbon” pathway. In “double carbon” pathway, monthly runoff shows increasing tendency in all scenarios in flood season, while increasing tendency in SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-3.4 and decreasing tendency in SSP4-6.0 in dry season. The intensity of extreme hydrological events under the “double carbon” pathway will be less than under the “high carbon” pathways.

Key words: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Runoff change, The Ganjiang River basin

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