气候变化研究进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 155-164.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.177

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

“一带一路”沿线国家2020—2060年人口经济发展情景预测

姜彤1,2(), 王艳君2, 袁佳双3, 陈迎4, 高翔5, 景丞6, 王国复1, 吴先华2, 赵成义6   

  1. 1 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
    2 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同中心/地理科学学院,南京 210044
    3 中国气象局科技和气候变化司,北京 100081
    4 中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京 100028
    5 国家发展与改革委员会能源研究所,北京 100038
    6 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-31 修回日期:2017-11-06 出版日期:2018-03-30 发布日期:2018-03-30
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:姜彤,男,研究员,jiangtong@cma.gov.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603701);中国气象局气候变化专项“气候变化影响综合评估”(CCSF 201722)

Projection of population and economy in the Belt and Road countries (2020‒2060)

Tong JIANG1,2(), Yan-Jun WANG2, Jia-Shuang YUAN3, Ying CHEN4, Xiang GAO5, Cheng JING6, Guo-Fu WANG1, Xian-Hua WU2, Cheng-Yi ZHAO6   

  1. 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    2 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    3 Technology and Climate Change Division, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    4 Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100028, China
    5 Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China
    6 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
  • Received:2017-08-31 Revised:2017-11-06 Online:2018-03-30 Published:2018-03-30

摘要:

本文应用IPCC共享社会经济路径(SSPs),开展“一带一路”沿线国家的人口和经济情景预测,研究可持续路径(SSP1)、中间路径(SSP2)、区域竞争路径(SSP3)、不均衡路径(SSP4)和化石燃料为主发展路径(SSP5)下,“一带一路”沿线国家社会经济的变化趋势,构建“一带一路”沿线国家人口和经济发展情景数据库,服务于气候变化影响、风险、适应和减缓路径方案设计。研究表明:(1)2016年“一带一路”沿线国家总人口占全球人口的62.3%,GDP总量占全球的31.2%。其中“21世纪海上丝绸之路”经过的东南亚和南亚地区经济总量大,但人口密集,人均GDP较低;“丝绸之路经济带”涵盖的中亚、西亚、东欧等地区人口密度小,经济相对发达。(2)“一带一路”沿线国家未来人口和经济整体呈增长趋势,但不同的社会经济发展政策对人口经济变化有重大影响。不同的SSPs路径下,2060年人口将比2016年水平增加3.3亿(SSP5)~18.3亿(SSP3),经济总量达到2016年水平的3.0(SSP3)~6.4倍(SSP5)。人口占全球总量的比重持续减少,经济比重则有所增加。(3)21世纪中期(2051—2060年),“一带一路”沿线国家平均人口密度约95人/km2,GDP约164万美元/km2。不同社会经济发展政策间人口经济分布有一定差异,SSP3路径下大部分国家人口增长迅速,但经济发展缓慢,人均GDP多低于2万美元;SSP5路径下人口相对较少,经济发展迅速,大多数国家人均GDP超过2.5万美元;其他3种路径下人口经济发展介于SSP3和SSP5之间。

关键词: 人口和经济, 共享社会经济路径, 预测, “一带一路”沿线国家;

Abstract:

In this paper, assumptions of IPCC five shared socioeconomic pathways are used to project future population and economy in the Belt and Road countries under the Sustainability road (SSP1), Middle of the road (SSP2), Regional Rivalry (SSP3), Inequality road (SSP4), and Fossil-fueled Development road (SSP5). The projected population and economic development scenarios could support the studies on climate change impact, risk, adaptation and mitigation. The results show that: (1) population and GDP in the Belt and Road countries made up 62.3% and 31.2% of the world total in 2016, respectively. The Southeast Asia and South Asia along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road show large economic aggregate but low GDP per capita due to their high-density population. The Central Asia, West Asia, Eastern Europe and other regions along the Silk Road Economic Belthave sparsely distributed population and relatively developed economy. (2) Population and economy in the Belt and Road countries will increase overall in the future, but trends are significantly influenced by social economic policy. Under SSPs, population will increase 0.33 billion (SSP5) -1.83 (SSP3) billion and economy will grow to 3.0 (SSP3)-6.4 (SSP5) times in 2060 with relative to 2016. The percentage of population in the Belt and Road countries to the world total will decrease, but that of GDP will increase in the future. (3) In the mid-21st century (2051-2060), there will be 95 people and US$1.64 million GDP per square kilometer averaged over the Belt and Road countries, but differences in the projected population and economy among SSP1-SSP5 are obvious. The population in most countries will grow rapidly but the economy will develop slowly under SSP3, but trends are quite the contrary under SSP5. More than half of the countries’ GDP per capita will be above US$25 thousand under SSP5, while that at most countries will less than US$20 thousand under SSP3. Changes of population and economy for the SSP1, SSP2 and SSP4 will between the SSP3 and SSP5.

Key words: Population and economy, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Projection, The Belt and Road countries

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