Effectiveness of cross-industry water rights trading on water management in water-deficient basins under multiple climate change scenarios

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.025

Abstract

Abstract:

This study conducted climate data calibration, natural runoff reconstruction, and vegetation water requirement simulation. And a stochastic multi-objective water rights trading decision-making model was developed under multiple climate change scenarios to quantitatively assess effectiveness of cross-sectorial water rights trading on water management system in the Dagu River basin under climate change conditions in the future (2026—2055). The results are as follows: (1) Annual average natural runoff, water demand per unit of production scale in planting industry, and water demand per unit area of wetlands are the highest under SSP1-2.6 scenario and the lowest under SSP5-8.5 scenario. (2) Under multiple climate change scenarios, water rights trading mechanism is more effective than non-trading mechanism in alleviating water scarcity issues in river basins. From perspective of entire basin, water rights trading mechanism shows the most significant effect on alleviating water shortage under SSP5-8.5 scenario, with water deficit decreasing by 7.05%-14.59% compared with non-trading system. From the industry perspective, trading mechanism results in the greatest reduction in water scarcity for enterprises, followed by agriculture, fisheries, and livestock industry. Regarding regions, water deficit decreases in all four counties within the basin, with the most significant reduction in Laixi, where the average water deficit decreases by 6.90%-10.91% under multiple climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, 71% of river sections experienced a reduction in water shortage, while 29% saw an increase. (3) Under multiple climate change scenarios, water rights trading increases total water supply, system benefits, and efficiency of system by 0.72%-0.90%, 10.26%-11.05%, and 9.48%-10.06%, respectively. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, the trading mechanism brings about the most significant increase in total water supply, system benefits, and system efficiency.

Key words: Climate change, Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP), Water resources adaptive management, Water rights trading, Uncertainties

HAN Chi, WEN Hong-Qi, ZHANG Shu-Lin, ZHANG Jun-Long, LI Wei, CHEN Ming-Shuai, YOU Li. Effectiveness of cross-industry water rights trading on water management in water-deficient basins under multiple climate change scenarios[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(6): 753-765.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1 Location and related information of Dagu River basin

Table 1 Natural runoff of river basins, water demand per unit production scale of planting industry, and water demand per unit area of wetlands under multiple climate change scenarios

Fig. 2 Water shortage under different mechanisms and various hydrological year types

Fig. 3 Water shortage of various industries under multiple mechanisms

Fig. 4 Water shortage in each river region under different mechanisms

Fig. 5 Water shortage in each county under different mechanisms

Fig. 6 Total water supply under different mechanisms

Fig. 7 Allocation of users’ possessed water right

Fig. 8 System benefits under different mechanisms

Fig. 9 System efficiency under different mechanisms

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