Research on China’s carbon emission control decomposition methods under the “dual-carbon” goal

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.311

Abstract

Abstract:

Through the trend analysis of China’s transition from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of carbon emissions, three challenges in the transition are identified including mechanism coordination, target decomposition and basic conditions, and domestic and international experiences of decomposition of carbon emission control targets are sorted out. In China’s “15th Five-Year Plan”, it is more suitable to adopt the national carbon intensity control target. From six perspectives of fairness, transparency, cost effectiveness, data availability, coordination difficulty, and target completion risk, three approaches and implementation plans are put forward and compared for regional decomposition of carbon emission control targets during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. The first approach is to set target for each province separately from top to down, continuing the experiences during the 13th Five-Year Plan and the 14th Five-Year Plan periods. The second approach is to develop a “two up and two down” national-regional iterative communication target setting mechanism based on the local determined targets. The third approach is to set a cap for the national carbon market and decomposed provincial targets for non-carbon markets. Based on comparison, it is recommended to adopt the second one currently. Relevant policy suggestions are put forward at last.

Key words: Dual-carbon goal, Decomposition, Nation, Region

ZHOU Li, ZHANG Shu, WANG Mei-Han, HUANG Jun-Ling. Research on China’s carbon emission control decomposition methods under the “dual-carbon” goal[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 529-540.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1 Selected modeling approaches for allocation choices in national literature

Fig. 1 Breakdown of EU’s aggregate GHG emission targets

Fig. 2 Breakdown of Germany’s aggregate GHG emission targets

Fig. 3 Breakdown of France’s first three carbon budgets[62]

Table 2 Comparison of decomposition ideas for national carbon emission control targets

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