Inundation risk analysis of sea level rise in South China under SSP scenarios

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.262

Abstract

Abstract:

South China is located at the northern edge of the world’s largest mangrove distribution area, and more than 90% of China’s mangroves are distributed in this area. Global warming and continued sea level rise pose a major threat to the land use and economic and social sustainable development of coastal areas characterized by mangroves in South China. By integrating historical sea level data, projections from multiple climate models (CMIP6) under different SSPs scenarios, and detailed land use data related to mangroves, this paper explores the trend of sea level change and its inundation risk under low emission (SSP1-2.6), medium emission (SSP2-4.5) and high emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The key findings are as follows. (1) From 1995 to 2022, the sea level in the coastal areas of South China continued to rise, with an average rising rate of 3.96 mm/a, which is higher than the global average sea level rise rate of about 3.3 mm/a during the same period. It is expected that the average sea level in South China will continue to rise in the 21st century. Under different scenarios, the final period (2080-2100) will see a rise of 0.46 [0.31-0.58] m, 0.54 [0.36-0.71] m and 0.72 [0.55-0.89] m respectively compared with the baseline period (1995-2014). (2) Under the three scenarios at the end of the 21st century, about 235000-368000 hm² of coastal zone will be submerged due to sea level rise. The areas with more serious submergence are mainly concentrated in the Pearl River delta, northeastern Hainan and southeastern Guangxi. (3) If land use remains the same as in 2020, among all land types, construction land will experience the largest inundation area (48200-71600 hm²); The proportion of mangrove forests flooded is very high (9900 to 14300 hm²), accounting for 39% to 57% of their total area. The research results can provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted mangrove protection strategies and integrated coastal management plans, so as to achieve the multiple goals of protecting the ecological functions of mangroves, ensuring regional ecological security, and promoting sustainable economic and social development.

Key words: Sea level rise, Inundation risk, SSPs scenario, Land use, South China

WANG Chen-Xu, JIANG Tong, CHEN Si-Rong, DONG Zhi-Bo, HUANG Jin-Long, SU Bu-Da. Inundation risk analysis of sea level rise in South China under SSP scenarios[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 519-528.

Figures/Tables 5

Fig. 1 Current status of land use in the coastal zone of South China

Fig. 2 Sea level rising under different SSPs in 1995-2014 (relative to 1995-2014)

Fig. 3 Rising of sea level under different SSPs in 2080-2100 (relative to 1995-2014)

Fig. 4 Coastal inundation extent under different SSPs in 2080-2100

Fig. 5 Inundation ratio (a) and inundation area (b) of various land uses in the coastal zone under different SSPs in 2080-2100

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