Abstract:

Climate change has amplified the range, frequency, and intensity of extreme weather events, leading to substantial economic losses. While existing attribution studies have quantified the role of anthropogenic climate change in increasing the probability of such events, its contribution to the resulting economic losses remains poorly understood. This knowledge gap hinders the development of effective adaptation policies. Based on the latest advances in extreme event attribution research, a multi-regional input-output model was employed to evaluate both direct and indirect economic losses from extreme events across China’s provinces. The portion of these losses attributable to climate change was quantified and key adaptation priorities were identified by sector and region. Findings indicate that extreme events attributed to anthropogenic climate change result in average annual direct and indirect losses of approximately CNY 80 billion and CNY 91 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for around 27% of disaster-related losses. The manufacturing and agriculture sectors are identified as the most affected, while industries such as finance, real estate, wholesale and retail, and business services, though not directly impacted, also incur significant losses.

Key words: Extreme weather and climate events, Loss and damage, Impact attribution, Climate change adaptation, Multi-regional input-output model