关键词: 碳源/汇, 中国碳核算数据库（CEADs), 土地利用, 时空演变, 生态经济协调指数, 时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR）

Abstract:

Achieving carbon neutrality is an important strategy for China to coordinate its socioeconomic development with the construction of ecological civilization. Accurately grasping the spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon source/sink balance across provinces is of great significance for policy making to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEADs) and land use data, the spatiotemporal characteristics of provincial carbon emissions and sinks in China were analyzed over a long period of time from 2000 to 2020. The carbon balance status of each province was evaluated based on the Economic Coordinated Development Index, and the impact analysis of multiple socio-economic factors was explored. The results showed that: (1) China’s total carbon emissions increased from 3.05 billion tons to 10.97 billion tons, with 19 provinces experiencing a continuous increase in carbon emissions, and 10 provinces fell after an increase. The overall spatial characteristics of carbon emissions shifted from high in the east and low in the west to high in the north and low in the south. (2) The total amount of carbon sinks in China followed a raise-fall-raise pattern. The total carbon sinks of China fell slightly from 1.261 billion tons to 1.260 billion tons, with most provinces reporting slight changes. The inter-provincial pattern featured high in the west and low in the east, with high carbon sink in the southwest and northeast, followed by the southeast, while the Northwest and East China registered the lowest. (3) The provincial government experienced carbon budget deficit. The deficit was on the rise, but the growth rate was tightening. In terms of the performance of Carbon Eco-Security Index and Ecological Economic Coordination Index, 11 provinces including Shanghai and Tianjin were high in the former and low in the latter, 9 provinces including Liaoning and Shaanxi exhibited the same performance, while 10 provinces including Jilin and Heilongjiang were low in the former and high in the latter. (4) The contribution of urbanization ratio to the Ecological Economic Coordination Index was positive and showed an upward trend over time, with a spatial pattern of higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast. The contribution of total population, regional gross domestic product, added value of secondary industry, and coal consumption were generally negative. The contribution of the number of patent application authorization was generally not significant, but positive, and the spatial difference was not significant.

Key words: Carbon source/sink, Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEADs), Land use, Spatiotemporal evolution, Ecological economic coordination index, Geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR)