SSPs情景下华南地区海平面上升淹没风险分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.262

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (4): 519-528.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.262

SSPs情景下华南地区海平面上升淹没风险分析

王晨旭¹^,²(), 姜彤⁴(), 陈思蓉³, 董志博¹^,², 黄金龙¹^,², 苏布达¹^,²

1 南京信息工程大学气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室，南京 210044
2 南京信息工程大学灾害风险管理研究院/地理科学学院，南京 210044
3 广西壮族自治区气候中心，南宁 530022
4 江苏第二师范学院气候风险模拟与城乡智慧治理江苏省高校重点实验室/地理科学学院，南京 210013

收稿日期:2024-10-11 修回日期:2025-02-24 出版日期:2025-07-30 发布日期:2025-06-25
通讯作者: 姜彤，男，教授，jiangtong@nuist.edu.cn
作者简介:王晨旭，男，硕士研究生，wangchenxu_sdjz@126.com
基金资助:
广西重点研发计划(桂科 AB22080060);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX24_1463)

Inundation risk analysis of sea level rise in South China under SSP scenarios

WANG Chen-Xu¹^,²(), JIANG Tong⁴(), CHEN Si-Rong³, DONG Zhi-Bo¹^,², HUANG Jin-Long¹^,², SU Bu-Da¹^,²

1 State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2 School of Geographical Sciences/Institute for Disaster Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3 Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022, China
4 Laboratory for Climate Risk and Urban-Rural Smart Governance/School of Geographical Sciences, Jiangsu Second Normal University, Nanjing 210013, China

Received:2024-10-11 Revised:2025-02-24 Online:2025-07-30 Published:2025-06-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球气候变暖，海平面持续上升，以红树林为特色的华南地区海岸带生态系统面临着严峻考验。依据历史海平面观测数据和基于多个气候模式结果预估的海平面上升数据，结合土地利用数据，探索低辐射强迫（SSP1-2.6)、中辐射强迫（SSP2-4.5）以及高辐射强迫（SSP5-8.5）情景下海平面变化趋势及其淹没风险，结果如下：(1) 1995—2022年，华南沿海海平面呈持续上升趋势，平均上升速率为3.96 mm/a，高于同期全球平均约3.3 mm/a的海平面上升速率。预计华南地区平均海平面持续上升，不同情景下21世纪末期（2080—2100年）相对于基准期（1995—2014年）分别上升0.46[0.31~0.58] m、0.54[0.36~0.71] m和0.72[0.55~0.89] m。(2) 21世纪末期3种情景下将有23.5万（SSP1-2.6）~36.8万（SSP5-8.5）hm²的海岸带因海平面上升而被淹没，淹没超过1.0 m水深的地区主要集中在珠江三角洲、海南东北部以及广西东南部等地。(3)土地利用维持在2020年水平的情景下，受淹没面积最大的土地类型为建设用地（4.82万~7.16万hm²)；红树林受淹比例很高（0.99万~1.43万hm²)，占其总面积的39%~57%。研究成果可为制定全面的海岸带综合管理规划和针对性土地利用调整策略提供科学依据，以实现保护红树林生态功能、保障区域生态安全和推动经济社会高质量发展的多重目标。

关键词: 海平面上升, 淹没风险, SSPs情景, 土地利用, 华南地区

Abstract:

South China is located at the northern edge of the world’s largest mangrove distribution area, and more than 90% of China’s mangroves are distributed in this area. Global warming and continued sea level rise pose a major threat to the land use and economic and social sustainable development of coastal areas characterized by mangroves in South China. By integrating historical sea level data, projections from multiple climate models (CMIP6) under different SSPs scenarios, and detailed land use data related to mangroves, this paper explores the trend of sea level change and its inundation risk under low emission (SSP1-2.6), medium emission (SSP2-4.5) and high emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The key findings are as follows. (1) From 1995 to 2022, the sea level in the coastal areas of South China continued to rise, with an average rising rate of 3.96 mm/a, which is higher than the global average sea level rise rate of about 3.3 mm/a during the same period. It is expected that the average sea level in South China will continue to rise in the 21st century. Under different scenarios, the final period (2080-2100) will see a rise of 0.46 [0.31-0.58] m, 0.54 [0.36-0.71] m and 0.72 [0.55-0.89] m respectively compared with the baseline period (1995-2014). (2) Under the three scenarios at the end of the 21st century, about 235000-368000 hm² of coastal zone will be submerged due to sea level rise. The areas with more serious submergence are mainly concentrated in the Pearl River delta, northeastern Hainan and southeastern Guangxi. (3) If land use remains the same as in 2020, among all land types, construction land will experience the largest inundation area (48200-71600 hm²); The proportion of mangrove forests flooded is very high (9900 to 14300 hm²), accounting for 39% to 57% of their total area. The research results can provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted mangrove protection strategies and integrated coastal management plans, so as to achieve the multiple goals of protecting the ecological functions of mangroves, ensuring regional ecological security, and promoting sustainable economic and social development.

Key words: Sea level rise, Inundation risk, SSPs scenario, Land use, South China

王晨旭, 姜彤, 陈思蓉, 董志博, 黄金龙, 苏布达. SSPs情景下华南地区海平面上升淹没风险分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(4): 519-528.

WANG Chen-Xu, JIANG Tong, CHEN Si-Rong, DONG Zhi-Bo, HUANG Jin-Long, SU Bu-Da. Inundation risk analysis of sea level rise in South China under SSP scenarios[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 519-528.

图/表 5

图1 华南地区海岸带土地利用现状

Fig. 1 Current status of land use in the coastal zone of South China

图2 不同SSPs情景下2000—2100年海平面变化（相较于1995—2014年）

Fig. 2 Sea level rising under different SSPs in 1995-2014 (relative to 1995-2014)

图3 不同SSPs情景下2080—2100年海平面高度空间变化（相较于1995—2014年）

Fig. 3 Rising of sea level under different SSPs in 2080-2100 (relative to 1995-2014)

图4 2080—2100年不同SSPs情景下海岸带淹没范围

Fig. 4 Coastal inundation extent under different SSPs in 2080-2100

图5 21世纪末期（2080—2100年）不同SSPs情景下海岸带各类土地利用淹没比例(a)及淹没面积(b)情况

Fig. 5 Inundation ratio (a) and inundation area (b) of various land uses in the coastal zone under different SSPs in 2080-2100

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SSPs情景下华南地区海平面上升淹没风险分析

Inundation risk analysis of sea level rise in South China under SSP scenarios

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