多情景下我国氢能产业中长期供需结构及碳排放模拟研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.246

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (2): 221-235.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.246

多情景下我国氢能产业中长期供需结构及碳排放模拟研究

许传博¹(), 王乐凯¹, 史超凡¹, 秦光宇², 刘建国³, 刘琦⁴, 刘畅⁴()

1 华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京 102206
2 北京建筑大学城市经济与管理学院，北京 102616
3 华北电力大学能源电力创新研究院，北京 102206
4 北京国氢中联氢能科技研究院有限公司，北京 100007

收稿日期:2024-09-18 修回日期:2024-11-04 出版日期:2025-03-30 发布日期:2025-02-28
通讯作者: 刘畅，女，高级工程师，liuchang@h2cn.org
作者简介:许传博，男，讲师，chuanbo_xu@ncepu.edu.cn
基金资助:
中国氢能联盟2022政研项目(CHA2022RP001);国家自然科学基金项目“面向新型能源体系的氢储能资源协同优化配置及激励机制研究”(72303063);国家自然科学基金重点项目“电-碳-氢融合的综合能源系统长周期平衡机理与规划方法”(U23B20124)

Multi-scenario simulation study on medium- and long-term supply and demand structure and carbon emissions of China’s hydrogen energy industry

XU Chuan-Bo¹(), WANG Le-Kai¹, SHI Chao-Fan¹, QIN Guang-Yu², LIU Jian-Guo³, LIU Qi⁴, LIU Chang⁴()

1 School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2 School of Urban Economics and Management, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China
3 Institute of Energy Power Innovation, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
4 China Hydrogen Alliance Research Institute, Beijing 100007, China

Received:2024-09-18 Revised:2024-11-04 Online:2025-03-30 Published:2025-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

对不同情景下我国氢能中长期供给和需求结构进行模拟预测。首先，设置基准、积极和强化情景，构建自下而上的低排放分析平台（LEAP）模型，对多情景下交通、工业和建筑等终端部门的氢能中长期需求进行预测；其次，测算计及碳排放的8类制氢方式的平准化单位制氢成本（LCOH)，并基于成本学习曲线预测未来成本趋势；最后，以最小化制氢成本为目标函数，构建氢能供给结构优化模型，得出2025—2060年各类制氢方式的占比，模拟碳排放演化过程。结果显示：从消费结构来看，工业部门占据了氢能消费的主导地位，2060年积极情景占比65%，交通是重要的氢能消费增长点；从供给结构来看，短期内仍以化石能源制氢供给为主，碳捕集与封存技术起到重要的过渡作用，远期逐渐形成以绿氢供应为主体的制氢结构，2060年可再生能源制氢比例将达到75%；从碳排放来看，得益于制氢产业结构的清洁化转型，碳排放将从2023年的6.18亿t下降至2060年的1.03亿t，2030和2060年关键时点的碳排放下降相较其他时点更显著。基于上述研究结果，提出了促进我国氢能产业高质量发展的政策建议。

关键词: 氢能, 需求预测, 供给优化, 经济性, 情景设置

Abstract:

The medium- and long-term supply and demand structure of China’s hydrogen energy were simulated and predicted under different scenarios. Firstly, a baseline, positive, and enhanced scenarios were set up, and Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model was constructed to predict the medium- and long-term demand for hydrogen in transportation, industry, and construction terminal sectors under multiple scenarios. Secondly, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for 8 types of hydrogen production methods that account for carbon emissions was calculated, and future cost trends were predicted based on cost learning curves. Lastly, a hydrogen supply structure optimization model was constructed with the objective of minimizing hydrogen production costs, and the proportion of various hydrogen production methods from 2025 to 2060 was derived, simulating the evolution of carbon emissions. In terms of consumption structure, the industrial sector dominates hydrogen consumption, accounting for 65% in the positive scenario in 2060, and transportation is an important point of growth for hydrogen consumption. In terms of supply structure, fossil energy-based hydrogen production will still be the main source in the short term, with CCS technology playing a significant transitional role, and a hydrogen supply structure dominated by green hydrogen will gradually form in the long term, with renewable energy-based hydrogen production expected to reach 75% by 2060. In terms of carbon emissions, thanks to the clean transformation of the hydrogen production industry structure, carbon emissions will decrease from 618 Mt in 2023 to 103 Mt in 2060, with more significant carbon emission reductions at key points in 2030 and 2060 compared to other times. Based on the above research results, policy suggestions are put forward to promote the high-quality development of China’s hydrogen energy industry.

Key words: Hydrogen energy, Demand forecasting, Supply optimization, Economy, Scenario settings

许传博, 王乐凯, 史超凡, 秦光宇, 刘建国, 刘琦, 刘畅. 多情景下我国氢能产业中长期供需结构及碳排放模拟研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(2): 221-235.

XU Chuan-Bo, WANG Le-Kai, SHI Chao-Fan, QIN Guang-Yu, LIU Jian-Guo, LIU Qi, LIU Chang. Multi-scenario simulation study on medium- and long-term supply and demand structure and carbon emissions of China’s hydrogen energy industry[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(2): 221-235.

图/表 14

图1 LEAP模型建模思路

Fig. 1 LEAP model modeling approach

表1 LEAP中国氢能模型的能源消耗结构

Table 1 The energy consumption structure of the LEAP hydrogen model in China

表2 情景设置及描述

Table 2 Scenario settings and descriptions

表3 对比情景关键指标设置

Table 3 Key indicator settings for comparison scenarios

表4 LEAP模型相关指标设置

Table 4 Metrics related to the LEAP model

图2 交通部门能源需求量与多情景氢气需求量预测

Fig. 2 Energy demand and multi-scenario hydrogen demand forecast for the transportation sector

图3 工业部门能源需求量与多情景氢气需求量预测

Fig. 3 Energy demand and multi-scenario hydrogen demand forecast for the industrial sector

图4 建筑部门能源需求量与多情景氢气需求量预测

Fig. 4 Energy demand and multi-scenario hydrogen demand forecast for the construction sector

图5 基准、积极和强化情景下氢气总需求量

Fig. 5 Total hydrogen demand under baseline, positive, and enhanced scenarios

表5 不同制氢方式的单位碳排放

Table 5 Unit carbon emissions of different hydrogen production methods

表6 制氢成本相关参数

Table 6 Parameters related to hydrogen production cost

图6 各类制氢方式成本注：横坐标30-40-50-60分别表示2030、2040、2050、2060年。

Fig. 6 The cost of various hydrogen production methods

图7 2030—2060年积极情景下我国氢能流向图

Fig. 7 Hydrogen energy flow chart in China under positive scenarios from 2030 to 2060

图8 2023—2060年积极情景下制氢碳排放量

Fig. 8 Carbon emissions from hydrogen production under positive scenarios from 2023 to 2060

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多情景下我国氢能产业中长期供需结构及碳排放模拟研究

Multi-scenario simulation study on medium- and long-term supply and demand structure and carbon emissions of China’s hydrogen energy industry

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