亚洲水塔失衡与冰雪变化

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.168

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2024, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 689-698.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.168

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亚洲水塔失衡与冰雪变化

姚檀栋¹(), 王伟财¹, 杨威¹, 张国庆¹, 施建成², 邬光剑¹, 高晶¹, 车涛³, 刘时银⁴, Walter Immerzeel⁵, 赵华标¹, 李生海¹, 朱美林⁶, 徐柏青¹, 王宁练⁷

1 中国科学院青藏高原研究所，北京 100101
2 中国科学院国家空间科学中心，北京 100190
3 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院，兰州 730000
4 云南大学，昆明 650500
5 乌特勒支大学，乌特勒支 3508，荷兰
6 兰州大学，兰州 730000
7 西北大学，西安 710127

收稿日期:2024-07-03 修回日期:2024-09-06 出版日期:2024-11-30 发布日期:2024-11-15
作者简介:姚檀栋，男，中国科学院院士，tdyao@itpcas.ac.cn
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0201)

Imbalance of the Asian Water Tower characterized by glacier and snow melt

YAO Tan-Dong¹(), WANG Wei-Cai¹, YANG Wei¹, ZHANG Guo-Qing¹, SHI Jian-Cheng², WU Guang-Jian¹, GAO Jing¹, CHE Tao³, LIU Shi-Yin⁴, Walter Immerzeel⁵, ZHAO Hua-Biao¹, LI Sheng-Hai¹, ZHU Mei-Lin⁶, XU Bai-Qing¹, WANG Ning-Lian⁷

1 Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2 National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
3 Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
4 Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
5 Utrecht University, TC Utrecht 3508, The Netherlands
6 Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
7 Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China

Received:2024-07-03 Revised:2024-09-06 Online:2024-11-30 Published:2024-11-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青藏高原被称为亚洲水塔，是全球最重要和最脆弱的水塔，其最突出的特点是冰雪为核心组成部分。近几十年来，气候变化导致亚洲水塔冰川、积雪等固态水体快速减少，湖泊、河流等液态水体显著增加，因此呈现亚洲水塔的固液失衡特征。与此同时，亚洲水塔北部内流区的冰雪融水储存到内陆盆地，导致水资源增加，南部外流区的冰雪融水汇集在外流大江大河下游或进入印度洋，导致水资源减少，因此呈现水资源分布的空间失衡。冰川整体加速融化，具有显著的东南-西北空间差异特征，表现为东南部和天山地区冰川物质亏损严重，青藏高原西北部亏损相对较小，帕米尔-西昆仑地区冰川相对稳定甚至前进；冰川变化导致冰崩、冰湖溃决等灾害风险增加。积雪覆盖度和年积雪日数总体减少，积雪融化时间有提前趋势，年融雪量和最大雪水当量都呈现下降趋势。未来要高度关注极高海拔地区的冰雪变化过程，加强观测的系统性和技术、手段、方法创新，提高冰雪变化过程模型模拟的时空分辨率，加强不同情景下未来水资源变化预估，研究并提出不同冰雪变化情境下的水安全应对策略。

关键词: 亚洲水塔失衡, 冰川变化, 积雪变化

Abstract:

The Asian Water Tower is the most important and vulnerable water tower in the world. Its most prominent feature is the glacier and snow processes. Climate change has led to a rapid reduction of solid water bodies such as glaciers and snow in the Asian Water Tower, while liquid water bodies such as lakes and rivers have significantly increased, resulting in an imbalance between solid and liquid phases. There is a spatial imbalance in the distribution of water resources, with an increase in water resources in the northern endorheic basins and a decrease in the southern exorheic basins. Glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate, with significant spatial differences between the southeast and northwest, showing severe glacial mass loss in the southeast and Tianshan regions, relatively minor losses in the northwest regions, and relative stability or advancement in the Pamir and West Kunlun regions. Snow cover and annual snow days have decreased, snowmelt is occurring earlier, and both maximum snow water equivalent and snowmelt are decreasing. In the future, research should be focused on the changes in glacier and snow processes in high-altitude areas, improving the spatiotemporal resolution of glacier and snow process models, strengthening research on future water resource changes under different scenarios, and proposing water security response strategies.

Key words: Asian Water Tower imbalance, Glacier change, Snow cover change

姚檀栋, 王伟财, 杨威, 张国庆, 施建成, 邬光剑, 高晶, 车涛, 刘时银, Walter Immerzeel, 赵华标, 李生海, 朱美林, 徐柏青, 王宁练. 亚洲水塔失衡与冰雪变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(6): 689-698.

YAO Tan-Dong, WANG Wei-Cai, YANG Wei, ZHANG Guo-Qing, SHI Jian-Cheng, WU Guang-Jian, GAO Jing, CHE Tao, LIU Shi-Yin, Walter Immerzeel, ZHAO Hua-Biao, LI Sheng-Hai, ZHU Mei-Lin, XU Bai-Qing, WANG Ning-Lian. Imbalance of the Asian Water Tower characterized by glacier and snow melt[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(6): 689-698.

图/表 9

图1 亚洲水塔特征

Fig. 1 Characteristics of the Asian Water Tower

图2 亚洲水塔重要性指数注：根据文献[7]数据绘制。

Fig. 2 Water tower index of the Asian Water Tower

图3 在气候变暖影响下亚洲水塔的水循环加速

Fig. 3 The water cycle of the Asian Water Tower is accelerating under climate warming

表1 1980—2020年代亚洲水塔的相态失衡

Table 1 Imbalance of water phases of Asian Water Tower during 1980s-2020s

图4 基于GRACE卫星反演的2003—2016年陆地水储量趋势

Fig. 4 Trends in water storage from 2003 to 2016 calculated from GRACE satellite data

图5 亚洲水塔冰川变化观测体系注：共包括36条冰川物质平衡观测，蓝色表示有冰川融水径流观测，星号表示有冰川气象观测。

Fig. 5 Glacier change observation system of Asian Water Tower

图6 2000—2019年亚洲水塔冰川物质平衡空间变化

Fig. 6 Spatial variations of the glacier mass balance in the Asian Water Tower during 2000-2019

图7 冰崩和冰湖溃决灾害风险增加，对下游地区造成重大影响

Fig. 7 The risks of glacier collapse and glacial lake outburst flood are increasing, with significant impact on downstream areas

图8 2000—2022年亚洲水塔积雪时空分布变化 (a)年平均积雪覆盖率空间变化，(b)年最大雪水当量空间变化，(c)年融雪量空间变化，(d)年平均积雪覆盖率、年最大雪水当量和年融雪量的时间变化

Fig. 8 Changes in the spatial distribution of snow cover in the Asian Water Tower from 2000 to 2022. (a) Spatial variation of annual average snow cover, (b) spatial variation of annual maximum snow water equivalent, (c) spatial variation of annual snowmelt, (d) temporal changes in annual average snow cover, annual maximum snow water equivalent, and annual snowmelt

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亚洲水塔失衡与冰雪变化

Imbalance of the Asian Water Tower characterized by glacier and snow melt

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