气候变暖对天气预报的影响及应对策略

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.159

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

天气预报与社会经济和人们的生活息息相关。随着全球气候变暖日益加剧，极端天气事件呈现广发、频发和强发的“新常态”，传统的天气预报将面临更大的挑战。文中首先阐述了气候变化与极端天气事件的关系，然后分析了全球气候变暖对常规天气预报和极端天气预报的影响，发现气候变暖将加大极端天气预报的难度，同时也更加强调“新常态”下提高极端天气预报准确率在防灾减灾方面的作用，并进一步分析气候变暖将使天气预报面临新的挑战。在此基础上，提出了适应气候变化的未来天气预报业务发展新动向以及应对措施和建议，如大力发展高分辨率和多圈层嵌套的数值预报模式、深入开展气候变暖背景下极端天气事件发生机理和可预报性研究、大力发展基于物理机制的动力-统计相结合的新模型、建立人工智能与数值预报技术融合的新方法以及提高预报员的科学素养和业务能力等。

关键词: 气候变暖, 天气预报, 应对策略

Abstract:

Weather forecasting is closely related to the social economy and people’s lives. With the intensification of global warming, extreme weather events are widespread, frequent and intense, and traditional weather forecasting will face more significant challenges. Firstly, the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events is expounded in this paper, and then the impacts of global climate change on conventional and extreme weather forecast are analyzed, and it is found that climate change will increase the difficulty of extreme weather forecasting, and the role of improving the accuracy of extreme weather forecasting in disaster prevention and mitigation under the “new normal” is also emphasized and further analysis of climate warming will make weather forecasting face new challenges. On this basis, this paper further puts forward new trends of future weather forecast operational developments as well as countermeasures and suggestions to adapt to climate change, such as vigorously developing high-resolution and multi-circle nested numerical prediction models, in-depth research on the mechanism and predictability of extreme weather events in the context of climate change, developing the combination of dynamic-statistical model based on mechanism and big data analysis, artificial intelligence technology and new forecasting methods, and improving the scientific literacy and ability of forecasters.

Key words: Climate warming, Weather forecasting, Coping strategies

丁一汇, 柳艳菊, 徐影, 谌芸. 气候变暖对天气预报的影响及应对策略[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(6): 682-688.

DING Yi-Hui, LIU Yan-Ju, XU Ying, CHEN Yun. The impact of climate warming on weather forecasting and coping strategies[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(6): 682-688.

图/表 3

图1 日平均温度和降水概率密度分布示意图[8] (a)平均温度增加，(b)平均温度的方差增加，(c)平均温度和方差都增加，(d)降水的偏态分布函数注：虚线表示以前的分布，实线表示变化了的分布，极端事件发生的可能性或频率通过阴影区域表示；(d)图均值的变化通常会影响其变异性或分布度，平均降水量的增加意味着强降水的增加。

Fig. 1 Schematic representations of the probability density function of daily temperature, which tends to be approximately Gaussian, and daily precipitation, which has skewed distribution[8]. (Dashed lines represent a previous distribution and solid lines a changed distribution. The probability of occurrence, or frequency, of extremes is denoted by the shaded areas. In the case of temperature, changes in the frequencies of extremes are affected by changes (a) in the mean, (b) in the variance or shape, and (c) in both the mean and the variance. (d) In a skewed distribution such as that of precipitation, a change in the mean of the distribution generally affects its variability or spread, and thus an increase in mean precipitation would also imply an increase in heavy precipitation extremes)

图2 GFDL AM4模式模拟的45°N纬向风、温度、降水的误差饱和时间随温度的变化[14] 注：GFDL AM4全称为Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Atmosphere Model 4.0。

Fig. 2 Time to error saturation for zonal wind (green), temperature (yellow), precipitation (blue) across the AM4 simulations [14]

图3 1999—2023年中央气象台暴雨24 h预报TS评分

Fig. 3 TS scores of the 24-hour forecast of heavy rain from the Central Meteorological Observatory from 1999 to 2023

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