中国太阳能干旱事件时空变化特征研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.167

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 日照时数是太阳能资源监测的重要指标，其在气候变化和可再生能源评估中具有关键作用。为探究全球变暖背景下中国太阳能干旱事件的时空变化特征，研究基于1981—2020年覆盖中国的2242个气象站的逐日日照时数数据，运用森式斜率与Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、小波分析以及K-means聚类等方法进行系统分析。结果表明：无光日数、少光日数、持续无光事件频次和最长无光持续期呈显著上升趋势，突变检验显示其趋势在2000年后显著增强；太阳能干旱事件以2~6 a为主周期，且在不同时间段存在显著变化的周期性特征；华北平原至长江中下游地区呈现明显增加态势，无光日数、少光日数、持续无光事件频次、持续少光事件频次显著上升的站点占比均超过22%，最长无光持续期和最长少光持续期显著上升站点虽占比较低但空间聚集性增强；我国太阳能干旱事件区域主要集中在四川盆地及云贵高原东部（极端太阳能干旱区)、长江中下游地区（严重太阳能干旱区）和华北平原（中度太阳能干旱区)，整体呈现“西低东高、北低南高”的空间分异格局。本研究可为气候变化背景下中国太阳能干旱事件的预测与应对提供科学依据。

关键词: 日照时数, 太阳能干旱事件, 无光日数, 少光日数

Abstract:

Sunshine duration is an important indicator for monitoring solar energy resources and plays a key role in climate change and renewable energy assessment. To explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of solar drought events in China under the background of global warming, this study is based on daily sunshine duration data from 2242 meteorological stations covering China from 1981 to 2020. It employs methods such as the Sen’s slope method and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, wavelet analysis, and K-means clustering for systematic analysis. The findings reveal that the number of no-sunshine days, the number of low-sunshine days, the frequency of consecutive no-sunshine days, and the maximum no-sunshine duration all show a significant upward trend. The mutation test indicates that this trend has significantly strengthened after 2000. Solar drought events have a main cycle of 2-6 years, with significant periodic variations in different periods. They show a significant increasing trend from the North China Plain to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The proportion of stations with a significant increase in frequency of no-sunshine days, low-sunshine days, consecutive no-sunshine days, and consecutive low-sunshine days all reaches more than 22%. Although the proportion of stations with a significant increase in the maximum no-sunshine duration and the maximum low-sunshine duration is relatively low, their spatial aggregation has been enhanced. The regions with solar drought events in China are mainly concentrated in the Sichuan Basin and the eastern part of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (extreme solar drought area), the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (severe solar drought area), and the North China Plain (moderate solar drought area), presenting an overall spatial differentiation pattern of “low in the west and high in the east, low in the north and high in the south”. This study can provide a scientific basis for the prediction and response to solar drought events in China under the background of climate change.

Key words: Sunshine duration, Solar drought events, No-sunshine days, Low-sunshine days

哈斯, 王阳, 巢清尘, 郭恩亮, 韩新阳, 刘青, 邹艺超, 郑宇滢. 中国太阳能干旱事件时空变化特征研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(6): 742-752.

HA Si, WANG Yang, CHAO Qing-Chen, GUO En-Liang, HAN Xin-Yang, LIU Qing, ZOU Yi-Chao, ZHENG Yu-Ying. Spatiotemporal characteristics of solar drought events in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(6): 742-752.

图/表 9

表1 太阳能干旱事件指标定义

Table 1 Definition of solar drought event indicators

图1 1981—2020年中国太阳能干旱事件年际变化趋势

Fig. 1 Inter-annual variation trend of solar drought events in China from 1981 to 2020

图2 1981—2020年中国太阳能干旱事件MK突变检验结果

Fig. 2 MK mutation test results of solar drought events in China from 1981 to 2020

图3 1981—2020年各季节中国太阳能干旱事件6个指标分布

Fig. 3 Distribution of solar drought event indicators in China for each season from 1981 to 2020

图4 1981—2020年中国太阳能干旱事件Morlet小波变换图

Fig. 4 Morlet wavelet transform chart of solar drought events in China from 1981 to 2020

图5 1981—2020年中国太阳能干旱事件6个指标的多年空间格局分布

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of solar drought event indicators in China from 1981 to 2020

图6 1981—2020年中国太阳能干旱事件6个指标变化趋势空间分布

Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of variation trends for solar drought event indicators in China from 1981 to 2020

表2 1981—2020年中国太阳能干旱事件6个指标变化趋势显著性检验结果的站点占比

Table 2 Percentage of stations by trend significance test results for 6 indicators for solar drought events in China from 1981 to 2020

图7 1981—2020年中国太阳能干旱事件空间聚类分布

Fig. 7 Spatial cluster distribution of solar drought events in China from 1981 to 2020

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