ISSN 1673-1719
CN 11-5368/P
   Table of Content
  31 July 2015, Volume 11 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Study and Prediction of the Relative Sea Level Rise in 2030 in Shanghai Area   Collect
Cheng Heqin, Wang Dongmei, Chen Jiyu
Climate Change Research. 2015, 11 (4): 231-238.   DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.001
Abstract ( 1845 )   HTML (   PDF (1612KB) ( 154013 )  
In a view of regional response to global climate change, eustatic sea level variation and long-term trends of potential cycle in the Shanghai area are analyzed by using the grey model with linear regression analysis, which is combining the least square method and wavelet transform based on the yearly-averaged tidal data at the Wusong tide station in 1912-2000. The eustatic sea level rise in Shanghai area in 2030 is predicted as 4 cm compare with in 2011. Meanwhile, the relative sea level rise is predicted as 10-16 cm, which combined with eustatic sea level rise and published tectonic subsidence, urban ground subsidence, estuarine channel erosion resulted from the watershed soil and water conservation and large water conservancy engineering, and rising of water level due to the land reclamation and deep waterway regulation. Seven risks zoning of the sea level rise in land area of Shanghai is also estimated.
Study on Impacts of Sea Level Rising in the Changjiang Estuary on Waterlogging-Controlling Safety of Chongming County   Collect
Chen Zujun, Shi Xiaowen, Mao Xinghua
Climate Change Research. 2015, 11 (4): 239-244.   DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.002
Abstract ( 861 )   HTML (   PDF (983KB) ( 830 )  
The dynamic state of sea level rise in the Changjiang Estuary and its impacts on tidal characteristics were summarized and analyzed. Then three series of 1-D river-net tidal hydraulic model based on sea level rising in the Changjiang Estuary, respectively for Chongming island, Changxing island and Hengsha island in Chongming county, were established. Thereafter impacts of waterlogging-controlling safety on Chongming county under sea level rise were studied respectively and deeply. Up to the year of 2030, when the sea level may rise up by 10-16 cm in the Changjiang Estuary, both of the mean regional waterlogging-controlling highest water level and the mean local highest water level within Chongming county will present uprising situation. The impact on Chongming island is the most, the two above mentioned water levels will rise up by 3-5 cm and 4-6 cm respectively; for Changxing island, its impact is minor, the water levels will rise up by 3-4 cm and 3-5 cm respectively; for Hengsha island, its impaction is the least, both water level will rise up by 1-2 cm and 1-2 cm respectively; but all impacts due to sea level rise on Chongming county?waterlogging-controlling safety will be under control.
Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Saltwater Intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary in the Low River Discharge Cases   Collect
Qiu Cheng, Zhu Jianrong
Climate Change Research. 2015, 11 (4): 245-255.   DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.003
Abstract ( 786 )   HTML (   PDF (3077KB) ( 725 )  
A 3-D numerical model ECOM-si was used to assess the distribution and variation process of freshwater volume as well as the responses of major reservoirs to the sea-level rise in 2030, 2050 and 2100 in condition of low river discharge. The study concentrates on water intake in reservoirs and against the risk by saltwater intrusion. Considering seasonal variation of river discharge, we chose three cases as the runoff boundary condition, including winter in 1999, autumn in 2006 and spring in 2011, which were all the lowest river discharge in the past 30 years over the same seasons, and saltwater intrusion made great harm in those periods. The results showed that the freshwater resources decrease when sea level rises in condition of river discharge in 1999 winter, and the volume drop by 42% and 41% in spring and neap tides relatively in 2100 sea-level rise scenario, together with the 70% increase in duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake. In condition of spring in 2011, the freshwater volume decreases by 43% and 20% in spring and neap tides relatively under 2100 sea-level rise, and the duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake increase by 1-3 days. In condition of autumn in 2006, freshwater resources decrease except in 2050 sea-level rise scenario, in which the duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake decrease by 40%-50% because of the weakened saltwater intrusion caused by the diluted saltwater from the North Branch.
Control Strategy of Land Subsidence in Shanghai Under Sea-Level Rise   Collect
Wang Hanmei, Jiao Xun
Climate Change Research. 2015, 11 (4): 256-262.   DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.004
Abstract ( 997 )   HTML (   PDF (1146KB) ( 799 )  
Under the status of trace settlement and higher urban security fortification, sea-level rise, due to global warming, must be considered for the control of land subsidence in Shanghai. In this paper, sea-level rise was taken as one of considerations for land subsidence control in Shanghai. Based on the monitoring results of flood-control project settlement and regional land subsidence, as well as sea-level rise impact on defense capability of flood prevention walls, it was found that regional land subsidence had a significant effect on flood-control project settlement, and the superposition of ground settlement. Sea-level rise would further reduce drainage capacity of urban flood or tide prevention projects. Then the control strategies were proposed, such as monitoring and early-warning mechanism for major public constructions, zoning control in different regions, better utilization and management for groundwater resources, improving networks for monitoring land subsidence.
Risk Assessment and Adaptation of Fresh Water Supply in the Changjiang Estuary Impacted by Sea Level Rise in the Shanghai City   Collect
Cheng Heqin, Ta Na, Zhou Ying, Zhu Jianrong, Ruan Renliang, Chen Jiyu
Climate Change Research. 2015, 11 (4): 263-269.   DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.005
Abstract ( 810 )   HTML (   PDF (1094KB) ( 926 )  
Mapping the risk factors in the fresh water demand and supply system of Shanghai city, water supply security risk assessment model in the Changjiang Estuary is constructed based on the equilibrium principle between the demand and supply quantity of fresh water. The complex effect of population growth, runoff reduction and sea level rise has been estimated into the fresh water demand and supply quantity prediction. The demand quantity of fresh water is predicted by the system dynamics analysis method and Vensim software. The supply quantity of fresh water is simulated by 3-D numerical model of saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary with high resolution non-orthogonal curvilinear grid mobile tidal boundary. The results of risk assessment of fresh water supply security show that fresh water shortage in 2020 will reach 0.39 million and 0.74 million m3/d respectively in a sea level rise of 10 cm and 25 cm with dry season and no additional fresh water supply, and water supply will decrease 0.19 million m3/d with extremely drought hydrological years. If new Meimaosha water supply is 3 million m3/d, the situation of water shortage can be alleviated in Shanghai city in 2020.
Mass-Size Distributions of Chemical Compositions in PM1 in Lin’an Regional Background Site of Yangtze River Delta, China   Collect
Zhang Yiwen, Zhang Xiaoye, Zhang Yangmei, Ma Qianli, Shen Xiaojing, Sun Junying
Climate Change Research. 2015, 11 (4): 270-280.   DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.006
Abstract ( 1096 )   HTML (   PDF (1742KB) ( 38602 )  
The mass concentrations and mass-size distributions of the main chemical compositions in PM1 were observed from summer of 2013 to spring of 2014 in Lin’an regional background site of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). The annual average mass concentration of PM1 was 53 mg/m3. Organics was the dominant composition, which accounted for 47% of PM1 , followed by sulfate (23%), nitrate (16%), ammonium (12%) and chloride (1.2%). The maximum mass concentration of PM1 was found in winter (84 mg/m3) and the minimum was in fall (38 mg/m3). The mass concentration of PM1 during polluted days was 24 times higher than that during clean days in winter. The nitrate increased most significantly in winter among all species as a result of increased emission of coal combustion and low temperature. The peak size of organics was lower than other compositions and the peak size of the sulfate was the largest. The peak sizes of all kinds of compositions in winter (~600 nm) were the maximum possibly owing to the accumulation of pollutants. The peak sizes of compositions in summer were lower than other seasons (400-500 nm). The averaged mass concentration of PM1 during clean days in summer was higher than that in other seasons, which was contributed by the regional new particles. Moreover, the aerosols accompanied with the photochemical smog and the ozone pollution in this region should be concerned further.
Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation Climate State Change in the South and the North of China and Its Influence of Climate Monitoring   Collect
Lin Jingjing, Zhang Qiang
Climate Change Research. 2015, 11 (4): 281-287.   DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.007
Abstract ( 1655 )   HTML (   PDF (1227KB) ( 140692 )  
Based on the yearly surface air temperature and yearly precipitation of 1353 meteorological stations over China from 1961 to 2012, characteristics of temperature and precipitation under four climate states change and the influence of climate monitoring in the north and the south of China are investigated. The results showed that, the climate states impact of climate warming is obvious, and the change of climate states make the climate analysis different in the north and the south of China. During the nearly 52 years, warming trend is obvious in the north of China, but weaker in the south of China. Under the I state, II state and III state, the annual mean temperature in the north and the south of China are both consistent increasing. But the annual mean temperature in the north of China is heat up faster than it in the south of China. The difference of annual precipitation in the north and the south of China is great over the 52 years. In the north of China, the annual precipitation appears weak “down - up - down – up” trend, but the annual variation of annual precipitation in the south of China is larger, the polynomial trend line shows “2 peaks and 3 valleys” Weather in the north or the south of China, the climate change makes the temperature level moves to the high level. And the climate state influence on temperature level in the north of China is also more obvious than the south of China.
Review of Cement Materials Carbon Sink   Collect
Xi Fengming, Shi Tiemao, Wang Jiaoyue, Bing Longfei, Zhang Ying, Liu Zhu, Steven Joseph Davis
Climate Change Research. 2015, 11 (4): 288-296.   DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.008
Abstract ( 762 )   HTML (   PDF (935KB) ( 3669 )  
This paper summarized the research progress on the cement carbonation principles, impact factors, concrete carbonation, cement mortar carbonation, and the cement kiln dust carbonation. Numerous studies showed that the carbonation rate coefficients are mainly impacted by material and environmental factors; the concrete cement carbon sequestration in service stage can be quantitatively calculated by the carbonation depth, and the calculation methods of cement carbon sequestration in demolition and crushing stage, and waste treatment and secondary use stage are still lack; the carbonation rate coefficients in mortar cement and cement kiln dust are higher than those in the concrete, but their carbon sequestration calculation methods have not been established. Future researches should focus on: (1) the carbonation rate coefficients of cement materials should be clarified, and the cement carbon sink calculation methodology from life cycle assessment perspective should be built systematically; (2) annual cement materials carbon sequestration and accumulated carbon sequestration in both China and around the world should be calculated, and their contributions to global missing carbon sink should be analyzed; (3) the significance of cement materials carbon sink on urban carbon cycle should be explained from both ecology and climate perspectives.
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