Climate Change Research ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (4): 245-255.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.003

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Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Saltwater Intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary in the Low River Discharge Cases

1 Shanghai Hydrological Administration, Shanghai 200232, China; 2 State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China   

  1. Qiu Cheng1, Zhu Jianrong2
  • Received:2014-12-16 Revised:2015-04-12 Online:2015-07-31 Published:2015-07-31

Abstract: A 3-D numerical model ECOM-si was used to assess the distribution and variation process of freshwater volume as well as the responses of major reservoirs to the sea-level rise in 2030, 2050 and 2100 in condition of low river discharge. The study concentrates on water intake in reservoirs and against the risk by saltwater intrusion. Considering seasonal variation of river discharge, we chose three cases as the runoff boundary condition, including winter in 1999, autumn in 2006 and spring in 2011, which were all the lowest river discharge in the past 30 years over the same seasons, and saltwater intrusion made great harm in those periods. The results showed that the freshwater resources decrease when sea level rises in condition of river discharge in 1999 winter, and the volume drop by 42% and 41% in spring and neap tides relatively in 2100 sea-level rise scenario, together with the 70% increase in duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake. In condition of spring in 2011, the freshwater volume decreases by 43% and 20% in spring and neap tides relatively under 2100 sea-level rise, and the duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake increase by 1-3 days. In condition of autumn in 2006, freshwater resources decrease except in 2050 sea-level rise scenario, in which the duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake decrease by 40%-50% because of the weakened saltwater intrusion caused by the diluted saltwater from the North Branch.

Key words: The Changjiang Estuary, saltwater intrusion, sea-level rise, freshwater resource

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