Climate Change Research ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (4): 263-269.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.005

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Risk Assessment and Adaptation of Fresh Water Supply in the Changjiang Estuary Impacted by Sea Level Rise in the Shanghai City

Cheng Heqin1, Ta Na1, Zhou Ying1, Zhu Jianrong1, Ruan Renliang1, Chen Jiyu1   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China; 
    2 Shanghai Water Authority, Shanghai 200050, China
  • Received:2014-12-15 Revised:2015-05-26 Online:2015-07-31 Published:2015-07-31
  • Contact: He-Qin CHENG

Abstract: Mapping the risk factors in the fresh water demand and supply system of Shanghai city, water supply security risk assessment model in the Changjiang Estuary is constructed based on the equilibrium principle between the demand and supply quantity of fresh water. The complex effect of population growth, runoff reduction and sea level rise has been estimated into the fresh water demand and supply quantity prediction. The demand quantity of fresh water is predicted by the system dynamics analysis method and Vensim software. The supply quantity of fresh water is simulated by 3-D numerical model of saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary with high resolution non-orthogonal curvilinear grid mobile tidal boundary. The results of risk assessment of fresh water supply security show that fresh water shortage in 2020 will reach 0.39 million and 0.74 million m3/d respectively in a sea level rise of 10 cm and 25 cm with dry season and no additional fresh water supply, and water supply will decrease 0.19 million m3/d with extremely drought hydrological years. If new Meimaosha water supply is 3 million m3/d, the situation of water shortage can be alleviated in Shanghai city in 2020.

Key words: sea level rise, water sources in the Changjiang Estuary, water supply security, risk assessment, equilibrium principle of fresh water supply and demand

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