ISSN 1673-1719
CN 11-5368/P
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  30 March 2011, Volume 7 Issue 2 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Debates on the Cause of Global Warming   Collect
Luo Yong Zhao Zongci
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 79-84.  
Abstract ( 3388 )   HTML (   PDF (3564KB) ( 2677 )  
The controversial points of views of IPCC and NIPCC are reviewed. IPCC holds that the global warming is caused by the anthropogenic effect. However, NIPCC says, nature, not human activity, rules the climate. Observations of temperatures in the last one hundred years or so support the hypothesis of the anthropogenic impact, but natural factors such as solar activity, volcanism, and thermohaline circulation also take part in the modulation of temperature changes, especially in frequency band of inter-decadal variability. There is pervasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate in time scale of last 1 ka to 10 ka, which proves that solar activity played an important role in the formation of MWP or LIA, and the cold events over the North Atlantic in the Holocene, though the mechanism responsible for the linkage of solar activity to the earth’s climate is to be understood. Recently, the point of view that galactic cosmic rays can impact low clouds, thus resulting in climate cooling, is prevailing. However, its influencing mechanism is remained to be further investigated.
Comparison of Global Mean Temperature Series   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 85-89.  
Abstract ( 2714 )   HTML (   PDF (2557KB) ( 1395 )  
Studies on the reconstruction of global mean temperature series are reviewed. Three series, HadCRUT3, NCDC, and GISS, are described in detail. Satellite data have been used since 1982 in the latter two series. NCDC series provides the most complete coverage among the three series by using statistic interpolation technique. It is found that the pause of global warming in 2000-2009, which is revealed in HadCRUT3 series, is caused by the incompleteness of data coverage. Missing of data over the Arctic reduced the positive anomaly of global mean temperature, for where the local warming was very high recently. GISS and NCDC series show much higher warming trends during the last 10 years. Three series give the nearly same warming trend (0.70-0.75℃ /100a) of global mean temperature for 1910-2009.
Trend of Antarctic Ozone Hole and Its Influencing Factors   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 90-96.  
Abstract ( 2720 )   HTML (   PDF (3829KB) ( 1213 )  
Influencing factors, and variations and trends of Antarctic ozone hole in recent decades are analyzed, and sudden change processes of ozone at Zhongshan Station and the effect of atmospheric dynamic processes on ozone changes are also discussed by using the satellite ozone data and the ground-measured ozone data at two Antarctic stations as well as the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and stratospheric temperature are two important factors influencing the ozone hole. The column ozone at Zhongshan and Syowa stations is significantly related to EESC and stratospheric temperature, which means that even though the two stations are both located on the edge of the ozone hole, EESC and stratospheric temperature still plays a very important role in column ozone changes, and mean while verifies that EESC is applicable on the coast of east Antarctic continent. Decadal changes in EESC are similar to those of the ozone hole, and interannual variations of ozone are closely related with stratospheric temperature. Based on the relation of EESC and ozone hole size, it can be projected that the ozone hole size will gradually reduce to the 1980’s level from 2010 to around 2070. Of course there might exist many uncertainties in the projection, which therefore needs to be further studied.
Spatiotemporal Variations of Rainy Season Precipitation in Northwest China Arid Region Under Global Warming   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 97-103.  
Abstract ( 2993 )   HTML (   PDF (4847KB) ( 1822 )  
The spatiotemporal characteristics of rainy season precipitation for the five climatic subareas of Northwest China arid region (NCAR) under the background of global warming were investigated by using the daily precipitation data at 77 representative stations from 1961 to 2007, and future trends of the precipitation in the next decades were projected as well. The results are summarized as follows. 1) The precipitation in the NCAR presented significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities. The rainfall in western NCAR exhibited obvious increasing trends, especially in northern Xinjiang and the Yili River valley. There were generally two interannual periodic oscillations of five- to six-year and two- to three-year and one interdecadal cycle of eight- to eleven-year in rainy season precipitation time series in most areas of the NCAR, but in the Hexi Corridor, the thirteen- to fourteen-year long cycle dominated the interdecadal variability. 2) The abrupt change dates of precipitation in the five subareas were distinctively different from each other. The abrupt change from less to more than normal occurred in southern Xinjiang in the early 1980s, and then reached northern Xinjiang in the middle 1980s, the opposite trend abrupt change occurred in the Yili River valley and the Hexi Corridor region in the early 1990s, however no remarkable trend change was detected in the Alxa Plateau. 3) In the next interdecadal cycle, the precipitation will sustain the less than normal regime until the year of 2015 in western NCAR, afterwards return to the more than normal regime; while the precipitation may become more than normal in the next eight to eleven years in the Alxa Plateau.
2009/2010 Winter Snow Disaster in Northern Xinjiang Under Global Warming   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 104-109.  
Abstract ( 3196 )   HTML (   PDF (4152KB) ( 1730 )  
Anomalous characters of 2009/2010 winter (from 1st November to next 31st March) climate in northern Xinjiang were quantitatively analyzed based on the observations of 43 meteorological stations in 1961-2010 in terms of extreme precipitation and temperature events defined by WMO. The results show that in the 2009/2010 winter, precipitation in northern Xinjiang was heavy, snow cover was thick with a long duration, changes in temperature were very large, and several meteorological variables describing precipitation and snow cover broke their historical extremes; extreme events was characteristic of high frequency, wide spatial range, and the coexistence of extreme cold and warm events. Under the large scale background of climate warming, the occurrence of such extreme climate events that brought about heavy snow, thick snow cover, and severe disasters in the 2009/2010 winter has been seldom seen in northern Xinjiang, which indicates the diversity and complicity of extreme climate events.
Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Events During 1961-2009 in Heilongjiang Province   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 110-115.  
Abstract ( 2958 )   HTML (   PDF (3258KB) ( 1649 )  
Extreme temperature events in Heilongjiang Province during 1961-2009 and their variation characteristics were evaluated by using the 8 WMO extreme climate indices. The results show that, in recent 49 years, summer days (SU), extreme minimum temperature (TNN), extreme maximum temperature (TXX), warm nights (TN90) and warm days (TX90) displayed a significantly increasing tendency, while frost days (FD), cold nights (TN10) and cold days (TX10) showed a decreasing tendency. The TNN and TXX had obviously interannual variabilities, and abrupt changes. The increase in TNN mainly occurred after the mid-1980s, while the obvious rising in TXX occurred after 1990. Spatially, extreme temperatures showed a consistent increasing or decreasing tendency over the whole province. The rising of night temperature contributed more to the warming than day temperature.
Research on Climate Projection for the Period 2011-2050 in the Yangtze River Basin   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 116-122.  
Abstract ( 2902 )   HTML (   PDF (3693KB) ( 1566 )  
Simulation abilities of different global climate models (GCMs) are different for a specific region. To select the applicable GCMs to project climate change in the Yangtze River basin, observed climate data from 1961 to 2008 were used to compare the 12 GCMs from IPCC-AR4. The results show that MIUB_ECHO_G model had better simulation ability for precipitation than the rest GCMs, and NCAR_CCSM3 model had better simulation ability for temperature. Based on the projected data by the two models, future annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies for 2011-2050, relative to the reference period of 1971-2000, under the SRES-A2, -A1B, and -B1 scenarios, were analyzed. Projected precipitation does not show obvious changing trends under the three different scenarios and projected temperature shows continuous increasing trends with an increasing range within 2 ℃.
Long-Term Variation Features of Global Solar Radiation in Nanning   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 123-128.  
Abstract ( 2765 )   HTML (   PDF (3027KB) ( 1306 )  
Based on the solar radiation observation data in Nanning from 1961 to 2009, the characteristics of solar radiation change for recent 49 years were investigated, by using the linear-trend estimate and the Mann-Kendall test. The results show that: 1) The global solar radiation overally showed a weakly decreasing tendency over the 49 years at a rate of 28.9 MJ/m2 per 10 years, with a main decreasing trend in the period 1961-1992, while an obvious increasing trend after 1993. 2) The global solar radiation generally decreased in spring, autumn and winter, especially in winter, while it increased weakly in summer. 3) The analysis results show that total cloud cover and visibility are the two important factors influencing the variations of global solar radiation in Nanning.
Progresses in Research of Homogenization of Climate Data   Collect
LiJuan Cao Zhong-Wei Yan
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 129-135.  
Abstract ( 5028 )   HTML (   PDF (4434KB) ( 2415 )  
The observation data from ground surface meteorological stations is an important foundation on which climate change research is carried out, while the homogenization of the data has the most significance and value for improving the quality and homogeneity of the data series. This paper reviews recent advances in the techniques of identifying and adjusting inhomogeneity in climate series. After briefly introducing the results of applying two commonly accepted and well-developed methods RHtest and MASH to surface climate observations such as temperature and wind speed in China, the authors summarize current progresses and problems in this field, and propose ideas for foreseeable future studies in China. Along with collecting more detail metadata, more research work should be done in future on homogenization technology. On the basis of comparing and evaluating advantages and disadvantages of different homogenizing methods, the homogenized climate data series of the last hundred years should be rebuilt.
Review on Forecast Methods for Photovoltaic Power Generation   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 136-142.  
Abstract ( 3376 )   HTML (   PDF (4517KB) ( 2063 )  
Solar photovoltaic technology is becoming one of the hot issues in the field of renewable energy generation. In future, China’s large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power generation system will be continuously in rapid development. But, so far, the exploring of photovoltaic power generation forecasting is still weak, and there are few methods available to meet the practical needs of photovoltaic power generation prediction in China. Photovoltaic power generation prediction means to accurately predict solar irradiances at first, and then in combination with the analysis of the historic power generation data of photovoltaic power station, to further forecast photovoltaic power. In this paper, we briefly introduce and classify several types of photovoltaic power generation forecasting models, such as the simulation-prediction method based on global solar radiation prediction and photovoltaic simulator, the physical prediction method based on global solar radiation prediction and photoelectric conversion efficiency model, the statistic-dynamic method based on the meteorological data and photoelectric power generation data processing and numerical weather prediction. Meanwhile, we also simply introduce photovoltaic power generation forecasting platform’s construction abroad.
Research Progress in Agricultural Vulnerability to Climate Change   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 143-148.  
Abstract ( 2668 )   HTML (   PDF (3890KB) ( 1998 )  
With the deepening of climate change research, more attention has been paid to vulnerability to climate change. Compared with water resources, forests and other natural ecosystems, agriculture is more vulnerable to climate change, thereby scientifically assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change is of great significance to rationally formulate effective adaptation strategies. Progresses in research of agricultural vulnerability to climate change are reviewed in this paper from aspects of definition, research content, evaluation methodology and so on. Besides, the problems existing in the current research, such as scenario application, methods, and uncertainty, are also analyzed, and meanwhile, the direction for future research is presented.
Is global Strong Wind Declining?   Collect
Zhao Zongci Luo Yong
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 149-151.  
Abstract ( 2343 )   HTML (   PDF (1591KB) ( 1513 )  
Professor Shi Yafeng: An Advocate and Leading Researcher of Climate Change Research in China   Collect
shen yongping
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 152-154.  
Abstract ( 2289 )   HTML (   PDF (2486KB) ( 1189 )  
Climate Change Sciences Pioneer —Professor Charles David Keeling   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2011, 7 (2): 155-156.  
Abstract ( 2294 )   HTML (   PDF (1523KB) ( 1290 )  
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