Analysis on interdecadal variation and the causes of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring in China

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.075

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily minimum temperature data, precipitation data at 553 stations in China and ERA5 monthly reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020, the interdecadal variation characteristics and its possible causes of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring of China were explored. Results indicate that the compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring exhibit a distribution pattern of more in the south and less in the north, with the highest frequency (more than 5 days per year on average) occurring in the Southwest and South China. The compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring in the majority of regions in China have presented a decreasing trend in the past 60 years. In the late 1990s, there was a nationwide interdecadal mutation from more to less, with the most significant decreasing being in the monsoon region of southeastern China. Further analysis shows that the anomalous cyclonic circulation from northern China to the Bering Strait and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the northwest Pacific on the southeast of China are the two key circulation systems causing the interdecadal mutation.

Key words: Compound extreme cold and rainfall events, Interdecadal anomaly, Circulation background

ZHOU Jing, SUN Yan, QI Ya-Jing. Analysis on interdecadal variation and the causes of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(1): 1-9.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1 The geographic distribution of 553 stations in China

Fig. 2 Frequency (a) and linear trend (b) of the compound extreme cold and rainfall events during 1961-2020. (“+” indicates the trend passes the significance test at the confidence level of 90%)

Fig. 3 The eigenvector and time coefficient of the first mode (a1, b1) and the second mode (a2, b2) of EOF decomposition of the frequency of spring compound extreme cold and rainfall events in China from 1961 to 2020

Fig. 4 Normalized anomalies (a) and Mann-Kendall test (b) results of frequency of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring of China from 1961 to 2020

Fig. 5 The average frequency of spring compound extreme cold and rainfall events during 1961-1999 (a), 2000-2020 (b), and the difference of 2000-2020 and 1960-1999 (c)

Fig. 6 Regression between the frequency of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring of China and wind fields (vector, black arrows indicate passing 90% confidence level), height fields (shaded, white dots indicate passing 90% confidence level) at 200, 500 and 850 hPa

Fig. 7 The difference of wind field (vector, black arrows indicate passing 90% confidence level) and height field (shaded, white dots indicate passing 90% confidence level) at 200 hPa, 500 hPa, and 850 hPa between the periods of 2000-2020 and 1961-1999

Fig. 8 Regression of the frequency of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring in China with a specific humidity at 700 hPa

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