Climate Change Research ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (2): 93-101.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.02.003

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Projection of Climate Zone Shifts in the 21st Century in China Based on CMIP5 Models Data

Cheng Zhigang1, 2, Zhang Yuanmeng1, Xu Ying2   

  1. 1 College of Atmospheric Science/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu University of Information and Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;

    2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

  • Received:2014-07-23 Revised:2015-01-29 Online:2015-03-30 Published:2015-03-30

Abstract: Climate classification of China in the end of the 20th century was simulated by using 21 CMIP5 models data and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data sets. Then, climate classification in the mid and end of the 21st century under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios was also simulated. The results show that the temporal distribution pattern of temperature and precipitation can be simulated well by CMIP5 data in China and the climate classification simulated by using CRU data sets has good fitness with that of FAO. There is no significant change in climate classification in the 21st century relative to that in the end of the 20th century. The range of Cwa and BS climates will increase by 28.2% /86.9% and 24.1% /49.4% in the mid /end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, compared with that in the end of the 20th century. Dwa climates will expand, but ET and BW climates will decrease significantly in the end of the 21st century.

Key words: CMIP5 data, RCP, Kö, ppen climate classification, climate zone

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