Climate Change Research ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (3): 243-252.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.135

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Variations of Agro-Climatic Resources Under a Future Climate Scenario in the Potential Northward Region of Winter Wheat

Zhang Mengting, Zhang Yujing, Tong Jinhe, Li Kuo, Pan Jie, Xu Yinlong

  1. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-07-11 Revised:2016-09-18 Online:2017-05-30 Published:2017-05-30


Based on future climate data under RCP4.5 scenario generated from the regional climate modeling system (PRECIS), climatic northern boundary of winter wheat would move northward 147.8 km in 2071-2097 and possible planting area would increase by 1.86 ×105 km2 relative to 1981-2010. The variations of agro-climatic resources under RCP4.5 scenario in the potential northward region of winter wheat were analyzed based on the nine selected indexes of agro-climatic resources. Results indicated that: (1) compared with the climate baseline (1961-1990), the light resource in potential northward region would decrease; heat resource would significantly increase with an enhanced variability in the last 30 years of the 21st century; precipitation resource shows an overall slight increasing trend but with an greater fluctuation; (2) in the time slice 2030T (2021—2050), 2050T (2041—2070), and 2070T (2061—2090), light resource would decrease more in the northeast of study area, while less in the southwest; heat resource would increase more in northern area than southern part; precipitation resource would increase obviously in northeast of the potential northward region.

Key words: RCP4.5, winter wheat, northern boundary, agro-climatic resources

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