Climate Change Research ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (5): 428-438.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.134

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The Impacts of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the Carbon Emission Space and Mitigation Cost of China, EU and Japan Under Constraints of Global Carbon Emission Space

Dai Hancheng1, Zhang Haibin2, Wang Wentao3   

  1. 1 College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
    2 School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
    3 The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing 100038, China
  • Received:2017-06-27 Revised:2017-08-19 Online:2017-09-30 Published:2017-09-30


Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and scenario analysis, this article assesses the impacts of the United States' (U.S.) withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on China, European Union (EU) and Japan in terms of carbon emission space and mitigation cost under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 2℃ scenarios due to changed emission pathway of U.S. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and fixed burden sharing scheme among countries, the failure of the U.S. to honor its NDC commitment to different degrees will increase its carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other parties, including China, EU and Japan, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be raised. In 2030, under the 2℃ target, the carbon price will increase by 4.4-14.6 US$/t in China, by 9.7-35.4 US$/t in EU, and by 16.0-53.5 US$/t in Japan. In addition, China, EU and Japan will incur additional GDP loss. Under the 2℃ target in 2030, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$ 22.0 billion-71.1 billion (equivalent to 16.4-53.1 US$ per capita), EU's GDP loss would rise by US$ 9.4 billion-32.1 billion (equivalent to 20.7-71.1 US$ per capita), and Japan's GDP loss will rise by US$ 4.1 billion-13.5 billion (equivalent to 34.3-111.6 US$ per capita).

Key words: U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, carbon emission space, mitigation cost

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