Climate Change Research ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 621-631.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.060

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Estimation of financial need based on the (I)NDCs of developing countries

Yi-Jun HONG1,2,Hui-Juan CUI1,Fang WANG1,Quan-Sheng GE1,2   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Patterns and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2018-04-24 Revised:2018-07-09 Online:2018-11-30 Published:2018-11-30
  • Contact: Hui-Juan CUI


After the Paris Agreement were signed, (I)NDCs ((intended) nationally determined contributions) become the important materials to obtain the information on climate financial needs for developing countries. The climate financial demands requested from developing countries keep increasing, while the financial supports from developed countries are imbalance and insufficiency, which has become the major contradiction of the climate financial issue. In this study, 151 (I)NDCs were analyzed to predict the future climate financial demand by developing countries. Out of the 151 developing countries, 84 countries have put forward specific amount of financial requests, whose total financial demands in the timeframe add up to US$4.4 trillion. According to the analysis of 48 countries which posed financial demand for mitigation and adaptation at the same time, the ratio of mitigation financial demand and adaptation financial demand is 6?4; and the analysis of 21 countries which posed financial demand from domestic and international at the same time, shows that the ratio between the two financial support origins is 3?7. By 2030, the cumulative emission reductions of developing countries will amount to approximately 119 Gt CO2-eq, the average abatement cost estimated from the (I)NDCs is US$50/t CO2-eq, which is much higher than the reasonable abatement cost estimated based on other research results. The demand for financial need of developing countries is expected to be US$1 trillion-4 trillion, averaging US$70 billion-260 billion per year, of which international financial demand is US$0.7 trillion-2.8 trillion, averaging US$50 billion-190 billion per year.

Key words: (I)NDCs ((intended) nationally determined contributions), Climate financial needs, Mitigation cost, Response to climate change

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