Abstract:

Based on a case study of facilitating reforestation for Guangxi section of Pearl River watershed, dynamic cost changes in carbon sequestration under the clean development mechanism (CDM) project and the five afforestation models in tCER (temporary certified emission reduction) and lCER (long-term certified emission reduction) were explored. The results show that tCER costs of the project and five models will decrease gradually, and project cost will reduce from 40.33 ￥/t CO₂ to 13.34 ￥/t CO₂. The lCER costs will be down to the minimum in the terminal of the first commitment period, and project cost will increase from 40.33 ￥/t CO₂ to 105.27 ￥/t CO₂. The costs of L. formosana plus C. lanceolata and L. formosana plus P. massoniana will be higher than P. massoniana plus S. superba and P. massoniana plus Quercus sp., and Eucalyptus sp. will be the lowest cost. The choice of discount rate will impact on cost of the project, Eucalyptus sp. in tCER and L. formosana plus C. lanceolata in lCER, and it is not obvious to P. massoniana plus Quercus sp. in tCER and lCER. The sensitivity of tCER cost to Eucalyptus sp. were also analyzed. It is found that changes in carbon storage per unit area can affect the tCER cost. The net present value of project tCER will be 13.11 ￥/t CO₂ with timber benefits in the end, thus suggesting that the implement the CDM project is feasible.

Key words: clean development mechanism (CDM), afforestation/reforestation, carbon sequestration, Cost