Abstract: HFC-134a is the most important alternatives for CFC-12 used in automobile air-conditioning sector in China, and the consumption has been increasing rapidly in recent years; the consumption of HFC-134a is the largest one of HFCs consumptions. Choosing 2005 as the base line year, future consumption and emission amounts of HFC-134a are estimated through scenario analysis: use of non-HFC-134a blends, technology promotion, good practice in servicing, and government policies. The analysis shows that HFC-134a consumption and emission will continue increasing in the next 10 years; the estimated HFC-134a consumption will approach to 20 kt and 35 kt in 2010 and 2015, and the estimated emission will approach to 16 kt and 30 kt, amounting to 21.0 MtCO₂-eq and 39.0 MtCO₂-eq emissions, respectively. Compared with the BAU scenario (under the current policy and no recovery management), the emission reductions in 2010 and 2015 will be 6.7 MtCO₂-eq and 13.0 MtCO₂-eq, respectively.

Key words: automobile air-conditioner, greenhouse gas emission, HFC-134a emission reduction