Climate Change Research ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (3): 173-178.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.03.003

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Evaluation and Projection of Maize Cold Damage in Heilongjiang

Zhu Hongrui1, Liu Henan1, Zhang Hongling1, Yu Hongmin2   

  1. 1 Heilongjiang Climate Center, Harbin 150030, China; 
    2 Heilongjiang Meteorological Service Center, Harbin 150030, China
  • Received:2015-01-15 Revised:2015-03-11 Online:2015-05-31 Published:2015-05-30
  • Supported by:

    China Clean Development Mechanism Fund grants project

Abstract: Based on climate data, geographic information data and economic data, the risk and vulnerability of maize cold damage in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed by using natural disaster risk theory, formation mechanism of cold damage, and GIS technology. The assessment and regionalization were also analyzed. The risk of maize cold damage from 2015 to 2044 was projected with CMIP5 MRI-CGCM3 model. During 1961-2014, there were 24 cold damage years, including 12 severe cold damage years. The most part of Songnen Plain, Sanjiang Plain and south of Heihe are frequency-occurring area of general cold damage, with higher exposure. If the cold damage occurs, impact on the grain production is serious. The probability of cold damage in Heilongjiang Province will decrease in the next 30 years. East and south of Songnen Plain are the high risk areas of general cold damage, and west of Sanjiang Plain is a high risk area of severe cold damage.

Key words: Heilongjiang, maize, cold damage, risk, projection

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