Abstract:

Under the background of global warming, the tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) have changed significantly in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea. As a result of rapid socio-economic development in China, the exposure to disaster has increased, leading to the new characteristics of TC disasters in China. By utilizing data on provincial-level TC disaster losses from 2001 to 2020, a comparative analysis was conducted to examine the changes of TC disasters in China, with a specific emphasis on monthly variations. The findings reveal that TC disasters losses in China from July to September accounted for more than 84% of the annual total. Most of the 22 provinces (regions, municipalities) experienced the peak of TC disaster losses in August, while Guangxi witnessed the peak in July, and Hainan, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang documented their highest losses in September. Among the disastrous TCs (DTCs) that caused losses to China, approximately 15% did not make landfall. Frequency of non-landfalling DTCs was the highest in Hainan, while TC disaster losses induced by non-landfalling DTCs was the heaviest in Heilongjiang. The annual frequency of DTCs and non-landfalling DTCs during 2011-2020 in China was greater than those during 2001-2010. However, the frequency of landfalling DTCs during 2011-2020 was less than that during 2001-2010. Nonetheless, both landfalling and non-landfalling DTCs demonstrated an augmented frequency in August. Influenced by the changes in TC tracks in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea, the prominence of TC disaster losses in August has intensified over the past decade in China. The influence of non-landfalling DTCs have aggravated, and the affected areas by DTCs have expanded northward. These changes pose more challenges for TC disaster forecasting, early warning, and disaster risk reduction efforts in China.

Key words: Tropical cyclone (TC), Disaster losses, TC track, Monthly scale, Disastrous TC (DTC)