Research on the low-carbon transition policies of power sector under the “Double Carbon” goal

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.041

Abstract

Abstract:

The different effects of renewable energy development, carbon tax, and technological progress on the low-carbon transition of power sector were simulated by building a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, and the pathways of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the power sector were discussed. It is found that the clean power sector is the key to achieving carbon neutral. Under the scenario of vigorously developing renewable energy, the power sector will be close to achieving the carbon neutral by 2060. Technological progress is an important support for the low-carbon transition of the power sector. Under the scenario of renewable energy development and strong technological progress, the power sector can achieve carbon neutral after 2058. Carbon tax contributes to emission reduction but damages economic growth. With the optimization of energy structure and technological progress, China can achieve both carbon neutral and economic growth. Finally, it is proposed that while vigorously developing renewable energy and devoting to energy technology innovation, the channels should broaden to promote the high-quality development of low-carbon transition in the power sector.

Key words: “Double Carbon” goal, Power sector, Low-carbon transition, Renewable energy, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

ZHAO Yu-Rong, LIU Han-Mou, LI Wei, GONG Li-Dong. Research on the low-carbon transition policies of power sector under the “Double Carbon” goal[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(5): 634-644.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Production structure

Table 1 Substitution elasticity

Fig. 2 Scenario setting frame

Fig. 3 Carbon emission path under different scenarios in 2023-2060

Table 2 Changes in total emissions of two scenarios with technological progress relative to those of the BASE scenario

Fig. 4 Carbon emission path of power sector under different scenarios in 2023-2060

Table 3 Energy consumption structure in 2060 under RE and RE-TECH scenarios

Table 4 Electricity composition structure in 2030 and 2060 under RE scenario

Fig. 5 GDP and employment growth under RE-TAX and RE-STECH scenarios in 2023-2060

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