Research on the speed control strategy of low carbon power transition based on CGE model—take the GBA as an example

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.049

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to discuss the supply security of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in the process of carbon neutrality and low-carbon power transition, a dynamic CGE model was built for the GBA. Fifty-one scenarios were designed to simulate the annual variation range of each type of power generation, and the maximization of social welfare was taken as the evaluation index. The optimal time node and development speed of coal power decommissioning to minimum guaranteed capacity and complete decommissioning, as well as gas power capacity to peak were studied. The results show that the coal power generation capacity will be decommissioned by 6.6 billion kW∙h per year from 2020 to the minimum guaranteed capacity in 2032, and then it will be completely decommissioned by 4.0 billion kW∙h per year in 2045. The gas-power generation capacity will increase by 6.1 billion kW∙h per year from 2020 to reach the peak in 2038, and then retire at the rate of 5.1 billion kW∙h per year to maintain a minimum guaranteed capacity of 132.3 billion kW∙h in 2050. Further, according to the constant growth rate of local total electricity generation from 2020 to 2050, the growth rate of non-fossil power can be obtained, and the combination of the development rate of coal power, gas power and non-fossil power is the most economical. Compared with the baseline scenario, the optimized power transition combination scenario can reduce the fossil energy consumption by 110 million tce, reduce carbon emissions by 280 million t CO₂, increase the added value of the power sector by CNY 23.8 billion, and increase the added value of other sectors by CNY 17.2 billion. The optimal power generation speed regulation strategy proposed in this study is conducive to supporting the economic, effective, safe, reliable, coordinated and orderly transition of the power system in the GBA and the formulation of low-carbon policies.

Key words: Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), CGE models, Optimal power development rate combination

XU Hong-Wei, WANG Peng, REN Song-Yan, LIN Ze-Wei, ZHAO Dai-Qing. Research on the speed control strategy of low carbon power transition based on CGE model—take the GBA as an example[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(1): 81-96.

Figures/Tables 21

Fig. 1 Model architecture

Table 1 Sector definition in this model

Fig. 2 Production tree for the power generation sector

Table 2 GDP and population growth values of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) %

Table 3 Setting of various types of power generation at key time nodes 亿kW∙h

Table 4 Setting of annual increment or decrease of electric quantity in each period 亿kW∙h

Fig. 3 Structural change curve of coal power generation (a) and non-fossil power generation (b) in 2017-2050

Fig. 4 Compared with scenario A6, the total GDP changes of the other 10 scenarios

Fig. 5 Changes coal consumption (a), its own electricity consumption (b), and in added value (c) of the power sector in 2017-2050

Fig. 6 Changes in electricity consumption (a) and added value (b) in other sectors in 2017-2050

Fig. 7 Compared with scenario A6, the changes in total added value of the power sector (a) and other sectors (b) of the other 10 scenarios

Fig. 8 Compared with scenario B11, changes in the total added value of other sectors (a) and total GDP (b) of the other 10 scenarios

Table 5 Category C scenario settings

Fig. 9 Total GDP in 9 scenarios after year-on-year decrease (unit: CNY 0.1 billion)

Fig. 10 Structural changes of gas-electricity generation (a) and non-fossil power generation (b) in 2017-2050

Fig. 11 Compared with D6, changes in total GDP in the other 10 scenarios

Fig. 12 Changes in natural gas (a) and electricity consumption (b) in the power sector in 2017-2050

Fig. 13 Changes of total natural gas consumption (a) and total added value (b) in the power sector

Fig. 14 Changes in electricity consumption (a), added value (b) and total added value (c) of other sectors

Table 6 Setting of the proportion of gas-electricity generation in the local total power generation in 2050 under different scenarios %

Fig. 15 Change in total GDP by 2050 in the ratio of gas to electricity

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