Assessment of economic, environmental and health benefits of the energy transition path—take the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.257

Abstract

Abstract:

Energy transition is a key measure to promote the realization of the “Dual Carbon” goals. A comprehensive evaluation model was constructed for energy transition in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Then the baseline scenario, the transition scenario and the deep transition scenario were designed to evaluate the impact of energy transition on the economy industry, environmental positive externality, and health benefit of the GBA. The results are as follows. (1) The clean replacement of energy will promote the carbon emission peak time of the transition scenario and the deep transition scenario to 2025 and 2022, respectively, and the carbon emissions are reduced by 22.0% and 35.9% respectively, compared with the 2035 baseline scenario. Among them, the clean replacement of electricity contributes to a reduction of 59 million tons of carbon emissions, accounting for 53% of the entire society’s emissions reductions. (2) The transition and upgrading of industries and the optimization of investment structure will promote a GDP growth of 0.68% in the transition scenario compared with the 2035 baseline scenario. However, in the deep transition scenario, the carbon restrictions are too strict, resulting in a GDP loss of 0.34%. (3) The energy transition has positive externalities to the environment. Compared with the baseline scenario, SO₂, NO_X, PM2.5, PM10 will be reduced by 35%, 20%, 36% and 37%, respectively in the transition scenario in 2035, bringing CNY 15.56 billion of health benefit, accounting for about 0.05% of the GDP of the GBA. Comprehensively considering the economic, environmental, health impact of the energy transition on the GBA, the economy of transition scenario is the best, and it will bring 0.73% of economic benefit in 2035. The GBA should set a reasonable carbon emission reduction target, steadily promote the process of energy transition, and achieve the green energy transition and the coordinated development of energy, economy and environment.

Key words: Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), Energy transition, CGE model, Economic impact, Health impact

LIN Ze-Wei, WANG Peng, REN Song-Yan, XU Hong-Wei, ZHANG Cong, ZHAO Dai-Qing. Assessment of economic, environmental and health benefits of the energy transition path—take the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 777-790.

Figures/Tables 16

Fig. 1 Location map of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA)

Fig. 2 Framework of comprehensive evaluation model for energy transition in the GBA

Table 1 Production sector classification

Table 2 Average hospitalization medical expenses for diseases related to pollution exposure in 2019 (China)

Table 3 Scenario settings

Table 4 GDP and population growth values of the GBA

Fig. 3 Development trend of total energy consumption under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035

Fig. 4 Primary energy structure under different scenarios in the GBA

Fig. 5 Electricity price trends under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035

Fig. 6 Carbon emission trends under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035

Fig. 7 Carbon emissions of various industries in the GBA under different scenarios in 2035

Fig. 8 Pollutant emissions under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035. (a) SO2, (b) NOX, (c) PM2.5, and (d) PM10

Fig. 9 PM2.5 concentration under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035

Fig. 10 The GDP change rate of transition scenario and deep transition scenario compared to the baseline scenario in the GBA during 2017-2035

Table 5 Additional health expenditure on the pathogenic side and health loss on the death side of each scenario in the GBA in 2025 and 2035

Fig. 11 Economic, environmental and health impacts of transition scenario and deep transition scenario compared to baseline scenario in the GBA during 2020-2035

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