Variation of southerly wind on the southeast side of Tibetan Plateau under global warming: comparison among CMIP5 simulations

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.114

Abstract

Abstract:

There is a special region on the southeast side of Tibetan Plateau. Southerly wind occurs through the whole year, which is closely related with East Asian monsoon and plays an important role in the weather and climate in its downstream region. Under global warming, rapid warming Tibetan Plateau makes this southerly sensitive. In order to estimate its future change under global warming, CMIP5 simulations were analyzed and compared. The results show that, in 13 CMIP5 models, only BCC-CSM1.1, GFDL-CM3 and MIROC5 models can well simulate the southerly region and its “double-peak” evolution feature in seasonal cycle. However, there are significant differences among models in the future change of the southerly. In MIROC5, the southerly will significantly enhance from June to December. But the southerly in BCC-CSM1.1 and GFDL-CM3 simulation will be significantly weakened after the autumn. Further analysis indicates that the difference of the southerly wind change is occasioned by the simulation difference of the thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and East Asian plain. For MIROC5 simulation, the temperature increase over Tibetan Plateau is larger than its surrounding. The induced thermal contrast will further enhance the southerly wind. Therefore, Reasonable simulation of the thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding is very important for East Asian climate estimation.

Key words: The Tibetan Plateau, Change of the southerly wind, Global warming of 1.5℃, Global warming of 2℃, Global warming of 3℃

QI Li, YANG Rui-Ting. Variation of southerly wind on the southeast side of Tibetan Plateau under global warming: comparison among CMIP5 simulations[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(4): 430-443.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1 The probability of southerly wind in 850 hPa in 1980-2016 (The shade indicates the region whose probability greater than 0.9. Red rectangle shows the study region over 22.5°-30°N, 102.5°-107.5°E)

Table 1 Information of 13 CMIP5 GCMs

Fig. 2 Time-longtitude cross section of 850 hPa meridional wind (m/s) over 22.5˚-30˚N in 1980-2005 from reanalysis data and historical simulation of 13 CMIP5 models (The shade marks the southerly wind)

Fig. 3 Average meridional wind (black line) (thick line indicates the moving average of 5 pentad) over the study region in 1980-2005 from reanalysis data and historical simulation of 13 CMIP5 models

Fig. 4 Time series of global mean surface temperature (relative to 1986-2005) in (a) RCP 2.6, (b) RCP 4.5, (c) RCP 6.0 and (d) RCP 8.5 scenarios (Solid lines are the 9 years running average)

Table 2 The time when global warming reaches 1.5℃, 2℃ and 3℃ under 4 scenarios in 3 GCMs simulation

Fig. 5 Southerly wind anomaly (dashed lines) over the study region relative to 1985-2005 in RCP 2.6 (a), RCP 4.5 (b), RCP 6.0 (c) and RCP 8.5 (d) scenarios (Solid lines are the 9 years running average)

Fig. 6 The time-longtitude cross section of the future change of 850 hPa meridional wind over 22.5˚-30˚N relative to 1986-2005 when the global warming reaches 1.5℃, 2℃ and 3℃ in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 in BCC-CSM1.1 simulation (The dots marks the region reaching 90% confidence level)

Fig. 7 Same as Fig. 6, but for MIROC5 model

Fig. 8 Anomaly air temperature along 30˚N in autumn when global warming reaches 1.5℃ in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 in BCC-CSM1.1 and MIROC5 simulation (The dots marks the region reaching 90% confidence level)

Fig. 9 The future change of autumn air temperature relative to 1986-2005 when the global warming reaches 1.5℃ in BCC-CSM1.1 and MIROC5 simulations (The dots mark the region reaching 90% confidence level)

Fig. 10 The time series of surface thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and East Asian plain when the global warming reaches 1.5℃ (Gray shade marks the autumn season)

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