气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (6): 534-544.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.104

• 气候承载力专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

面向新型城镇化的气候承载力指标研究——以皖江城市带为例

卢燕宇1,2, 田红1, 孙维3, 吴蓉1,2, 王胜1,2   

  1. 1 安徽省气象局气候中心, 合肥 230031;
    2 安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室, 合肥 230031;
    3 安徽省气象局公共气象服务中心, 合肥 230031
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-05 修回日期:2017-08-02 出版日期:2017-11-30 发布日期:2017-11-30
  • 作者简介:卢燕宇,男,高级工程师,ahqxlyy@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201507,CCSF201734);中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013028);安徽省气象局创新团队建设计划;中国气象局青年英才计划

Assessment on Climatic Carrying Capacity in the Process of New Urbanization:A Case Study in the Wanjiang City Belt

Lu Yanyu1,2, Tian Hong1, Sun Wei3, Wu Rong1,2, Wang Sheng1,2   

  1. 1 Anhui Climate Center, Anhui Meteorological Service, Hefei 230031, China;
    2 Anhui Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing, Anhui Meteorological Service, Hefei 230031, China;
    3 Anhui Public Meteorological Service Center, Anhui Meteorological Service, Hefei 230031, China
  • Received:2017-06-05 Revised:2017-08-02 Online:2017-11-30 Published:2017-11-30

摘要:

从服务新型城镇化进程出发,本文基于气候条件与人类活动的相互作用关系,同时考虑气候的资源和灾害双重属性,识别并构建了包含气候资源供给、气候灾害限制和城镇化协调发展水平三方面要素的气候承载力评价指标体系,进而采用熵权法、耦合协调度模型和GIS技术等方法实现了指标的量化,形成了气候承载力的综合评价指标和模型。以皖江城市带为例,应用该套指标方法探讨了气候承载力的空间格局与关键影响因子,结果表明,皖江城市带城镇化发展格局与气候承载力分布较为一致,气候承载力较高的地区意味着可容纳的城市发展负荷量较高,而与之对应的这些地区城镇化集聚程度也较高;但气候承载力水平空间差异显著,区域整体气候承载力还有待进一步优化提升。根据城镇化集聚度和气候承载力特点,将皖江城市带分为4个等级和12种类型,并进一步揭示了不同类型地区存在的承载力"短板"和问题现状。

关键词: 气候承载力, 综合指标, 双重属性, 耦合协调, 集聚度

Abstract:

According to the interaction between climate and human activities as well as the double attributes of climate, a comprehensive framework and indices system of climatic carrying capacity were established to support the new urbanization. In this framework, the factors concerning climatic resource supplying, climatic disaster constraining, and urban coordinated development were included and quantified by using various methods such as entropy weight, coupled coordination model, and GIS technology. The comprehensive indices were then adopted in Wanjiang city belt to analyze the spatial pattern and key factors of climatic carrying capacity. Results indicated that the spatial pattern of urbanization development was well matching the climatic carrying capacity. The areas where have relative high climatic carrying capacity are also dominated by high urbanization agglomeration. However, the climatic carrying capacity show large spatial variability, and needs to be further optimized at the whole regional scale. Based on the characteristics of urbanization agglomeration and climatic carrying capacity, Wanjiang city belt could be divided into 4 grades and 12 types of areas. For different areas dominated by different types of climatic carrying capacity, the "short board" and main limiting factors are further revealed in this paper.

Key words: climatic carrying capacity, integrated indices, double attributes, coupled coordination, agglomeration

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