关键词: 气候变化长期目标, 1.5℃目标, 减缓行动, 低碳发展

Abstract:

The Paris Agreement has set one of its targets that to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels (in short 1.5℃ target). The studies on 1.5℃ target are limited currently. According to existing researches, the 1.5℃ target, comparing with 2℃ long-term temperature goal, probably could reduce the climate risk for the earth systems but need more stringent global mitigation efforts. Although the Parties have committed their national determined contributions (NDC) till 2030 (2025), there is still a big gap with respect to the 1.5℃ target. Corresponding model simulations have shown that the global temperature rise by the end of the 21st century is in the range of 2.2-3.4℃ if the current NDC is fully implemented. There is still 467 Gt CO₂ left under the 2℃ scenario, 17 Gt CO₂ remaining under the 1.5℃ scenario. By 2030, the NDC-based emissions will have exceeded the target emissions of 1.5℃. According to the current pathway, the 1.5℃ target requests not only an immediate mitigation action and other actions related to decarbonization and carbon sequestration measures, but also a negative emission before 2100. Regardless the uncertainty from scientific communities, 1.5℃ target is more than just a direction for tackling climate change, but start an important way for the future global low-carbon sustainable development.

Key words: climate change long-term goal, 1.5℃ target, mitigation action, low carbon development