关键词: 气候模式比较, 气候预估, 排放情景, 长江流域, comparison of GCMs, climate projection, emission scenarios, Yangtze River basin

Abstract: Simulation abilities of different global climate models (GCMs) are different for a specific region. To select the applicable GCMs to project climate change in the Yangtze River basin, observed climate data from 1961 to 2008 were used to compare the 12 GCMs from IPCC-AR4. The results show that MIUB_ECHO_G model had better simulation ability for precipitation than the rest GCMs, and NCAR_CCSM3 model had better simulation ability for temperature. Based on the projected data by the two models, future annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies for 2011-2050, relative to the reference period of 1971-2000, under the SRES-A2, -A1B, and -B1 scenarios, were analyzed. Projected precipitation does not show obvious changing trends under the three different scenarios and projected temperature shows continuous increasing trends with an increasing range within 2 ℃.