关键词: RCP8.5排放情景, 洪涝灾害风险, 未来预估

Abstract: Based on the simulations from 22 CMIP5 models and in combination with the socio-economic data and terrain elevation data, the spatial distributions of the risk level of flooding-induced disaster, the vulnerability of flooding hazard affected body and the risk of flooding hazard in China respectively during the near term (2016-2035), medium term (2046-2065) and long term (2080-2099) are projected under RCP8.5. The results show that regions with high risk level of flooding hazard are mainly located in southeastern China, and the vulnerability of flood hazard bearing body in eastern China is also high. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the high risk of flooding disaster in future would mainly appear in eastern part of Sichuan, major of East China, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin region of North China. The major capital cities in Northeast China and some parts of Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces as well as some coastal areas in Southeast China would also encounter high incidence of flooding disaster. Compared with the baseline period, 21st century forward, although the occurrence of floods area changes little, the regional strong risk will increase during the end of the 21st century. Due to the coarse resolution of climate models and the methodology for determining weight coefficients, large uncertainty still exists in the projection of the flooding disaster risk.

Key words: RCP8.5 scenario, flooding disaster risk, projection