基于SCS-CN模型的暴雨情景下河南省历史遗存淹没风险评价

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.005

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (6): 738-748.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.005

基于SCS-CN模型的暴雨情景下河南省历史遗存淹没风险评价

董宏杰¹(), 董文杰², 曹迎春³(), 张艺凡¹

1 天津大学建筑学院，天津 300072
2 河北建筑工程学院建筑与艺术学院，张家口 075000
3 江苏科技大学土木工程与建筑学院，镇江 212003

收稿日期:2023-01-07 修回日期:2023-08-17 出版日期:2023-11-30 发布日期:2023-12-01
通讯作者: 曹迎春，男，副教授，2314134779@qq.com
作者简介:董宏杰，女，博士研究生，364293358@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(52278017);天津市研究生科研创新项目(2022BKY089);河北省省属高等学校基本科研业务费研究项目(2021QNJS03);河北省高等学校科学技术研究青年基金项目(QN2022081);河北省体育局体育科技研究项目(2024CY04);河北建筑工程学院教育教学改革研究与实践项目(2022JY108)

Inundation risk assessment of historical relics in Henan province under rainstorm scenarios based on SCS-CN model

DONG Hong-Jie¹(), DONG Wen-Jie², CAO Ying-Chun³(), ZHANG Yi-Fan¹

1 School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
2 School of Architecture and Art, Hebei University of Architecture, Zhangjiakou 075000, China
3 School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China

Received:2023-01-07 Revised:2023-08-17 Online:2023-11-30 Published:2023-12-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

暴雨灾害是威胁城市生命财产安全的常见灾种，暴露于其中的历史遗存更是面临着极大的淹没风险。科学预测历史遗存的淹没风险，及时开展抢救工作，可有效提升救援效率。以河南省域范围内154个历史遗存点为研究对象，基于SCS-CN模型和GIS空间分析技术，通过水文分析提取出65个包含历史遗存点的汇水区，进行暴雨情景下历史遗存淹没风险的研究。首先，计算每个汇水区内历史遗存被淹没的临界降雨量；然后，选取“7·20河南暴雨”期间的“7月20日08时—21日06时”“7月20日00时—21日24时”“7月18日00时—21日24时”3个时间段，将临界降雨量与真实降雨情景进行对比，分别识别具有淹没风险的区域；最后，对历史遗存点的淹没风险进行系统评价。得到以下结论：(1)连续多日极端降雨易于在汇水区内形成大范围积水，并且随着连续降雨时间的延长，历史遗存面临的淹没威胁也愈发严重；(2)临界降雨量比较低的汇水区在暴雨来临时更易被淹没，历史遗存的淹没风险也相对较高；(3)地形条件和发展程度成为影响极端降水条件下历史遗存淹没风险的重要因素，风险较高的区域多位于地势低洼且发展程度比较高的地区；(4)规划中应重点关注高风险点及其对应的汇水区域，实行分级分类防控、构建防洪救灾系统、建立风险预警机制，有效提升城市韧性。研究成果希望能为暴雨灾害情景下的历史遗存应急管理提供有益借鉴。

关键词: 暴雨, 淹没风险, 历史遗存, SCS-CN模型, 河南省

Abstract:

Rainstorm disaster is a common kind of disaster that threatens the safety of urban life and property, and the historical relics exposed therein are faced with the great inundation risk. Scientifically predicting the inundation risk of historical relics and carrying out rescue work in time can effectively improve the rescue efficiency. Taking 154 historical relics in Henan province as the research object, based on SCS-CN model and GIS spatial analysis technology, 65 catchment areas containing historical relics were extracted through hydrological analysis to study the risk of historical relic inundation under rainstorm scenarios. Firstly, the critical rainfall of historical relics submerged was calculated in each catchment area. Then, comparing with the actual rainfall scenarios during the “July 20 Henan Rainstorm” period, from 8:00 on July 20 to 6:00 on July 21, from July 20 0:00 to 21 24:00, and from July 18 0:00 to 21 24:00, the areas with inundation risk were identified respectively. Finally, the inundation risk of historical relics was systematically evaluated. The results show that: (1) Extreme rainfalls for many consecutive days can easily create widespread ponding in the catchment area, and as the duration of continuous rainfall increases, the threat of inundation of historic relics becomes more severe; (2) The catchment areas with low critical rainfall are more likely to be flooded when rainstorm comes, and the inundation risks of historical relics in these areas are relatively high; (3) Topographic conditions and development degree have become important factors affecting the inundation risk of historical relics under extreme rainfall scenarios, so that areas with high risk are mostly located in low-lying areas with high development degree; (4) The planning should focus on high-risk points and their corresponding catchment areas by implementing classified prevention and control, building a flood control and disaster relief system, and establishing a risk early warning mechanism to effectively improve the urban resilience. The research results are expected to provide useful reference for the emergency management of historical relics under the rainstorm disaster scenarios.

Key words: Rainstorm, Inundation risk, Historical relics, SCS-CN model, Henan province

董宏杰, 董文杰, 曹迎春, 张艺凡. 基于SCS-CN模型的暴雨情景下河南省历史遗存淹没风险评价[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(6): 738-748.

DONG Hong-Jie, DONG Wen-Jie, CAO Ying-Chun, ZHANG Yi-Fan. Inundation risk assessment of historical relics in Henan province under rainstorm scenarios based on SCS-CN model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(6): 738-748.

图/表 12

图1 河南省历史遗存点分布图

Fig. 1 Distribution of historical relics in Henan province

表1 数据来源

Table 1 Data sources

表2 土壤水文分组划分标准

Table 2 Soil hydrological grouping classification criteria

表3 SCS-CN模型AMC等级划分[21]

Table 3 AMC classification of SCS-CN model [21]

表4 河南省SCS-CN模型CN取值表

Table 4 CN value table of SCS-CN model in Henan province

图2 65个汇水区的CN值分布

Fig. 2 Distribution of CN values in sixty-five catchment areas

图3 河南省包含历史遗存点的65个汇水区被淹没的临界降雨量

Fig. 3 Critical rainfall for flooding in sixty-five catchment areas including historical relics in Henan province

图4 CN3取值下的汇水区面积和淹没高度对比

Fig. 4 Comparison of catchment areas and inundation height for CN3

表5 河南省不同临界降雨量范围下的汇水区数量统计表

Table 5 Statistics of catchment areas under different critical rainfall in Henan province

图5 3个时间段历史遗存具有淹没风险的汇水区分布

Fig. 5 Distribution of catchment areas with inundation risk of corresponding historical relics in three periods

表6 具有较高淹没风险的10个汇水区位置及历史遗存点分布

Table 6 Location of ten catchment areas and distribution of historical sites with high inundation risk

图6 历史遗存综合淹没风险

Fig. 6 Comprehensive inundation risk map of historical relics

参考文献 27

[1]	国务院灾害调查组. 河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害调查报告[R]. 北京: 国务院灾害调查组, 2022.
	State Council Disaster Investigation Group. Investigation report on the “7·20” extraordinary heavy rainstorm disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan province[R]. Beijing: State Council Disaster Investigation Group, 2022 (in Chinese)
[2]	沈望舒. 城市文化资源的产业化运作: 以北京市为例[J]. 城市问题, 2001 (2): 26-28, 58.
	Shen W S. Industrialized operation of urban cultural resources: a case study of Beijing[J]. Urban Problems, 2001 (2): 26-28, 58 (in Chinese)
[3]	铁永波, 唐川. 城市灾害应急能力评价指标体系建构[J]. 城市问题, 2005 (6): 78-81.
	Tie Y B, Tang C. Construction of evaluation index system for urban disaster emergency response capability[J]. Urban Problems, 2005 (6): 78-81 (in Chinese)
[4]	尚志云. 基于SWAT模型的朱庄水库流域土地利用变化的水文响应研究[D]. 石家庄: 河北师范大学, 2016.
	Shang Z Y. Hydrological responses to LUCC based on swat model in Zhuzhuang reservoir basin[D]. Shijiazhuang: Hebei Normal University, 2016 (in Chinese)
[5]	赵武成, 买小虎, 王琦, 等. 基于SCS-CN模型的黄土高原丘陵区坡地微型集雨垄垄面径流量预测[J]. 生态学杂志, 2022, 41 (1): 199-208.
	Zhao W C, Mai X H, Wang Q, et al. Ridge surface runoff estimation for micro-rainwater-harvesting- ridges on slopping land in the hilly areas of the Loess Plateau based on SCS-CN model[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2022, 41 (1): 199-208 (in Chinese)
[6]	王胜, 吴蓉, 谢五三, 等. 基于FloodArea的山洪灾害风险区划研究: 以淠河流域为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12 (5): 432-441.
	Wang S, Wu R, Xie W S, et al. Rainstorm-induced mountain flood disaster risk zoning based on FloodArea inundation model: taking Pihe River valley as a case[J]. Climate Change Research, 2016, 12 (5): 432-441 (in Chinese)
[7]	宋云, 俞孔坚. 构建城市雨洪管理系统的景观规划途径: 以威海市为例[J]. 城市问题, 2007, 145 (8): 64-70.
	Song Y, Yu K J. Landscape planning approach to constructing urban rainwater and flood management system: a case study of Weihai[J]. Urban Problems, 2007, 145 (8): 64-70 (in Chinese)
[8]	曾坚, 王倩雯, 郭海沙. 国际关于洪涝灾害风险研究的知识图谱分析及进展评述[J]. 灾害学, 2020, 35 (2): 127-135.
	Zeng J, Wang Q W, Guo H S. Knowledge map analysis and progress review of international research on flood disaster risk[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2020, 35 (2): 127-135 (in Chinese)
[9]	王倩雯, 曾坚, 辛儒鸿, 等. 城市化进程对暴雨洪涝灾害风险影响效应研究: 以闽三角地区为例[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2021, 30 (5): 72-84.
	Wang Q W, Zeng J, Xin R H, et al. Effect of urbanization on the rainstorm and flood disaster risk: a case study of Min Delta[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2021, 30 (5): 72-84 (in Chinese)
[10]	王倩雯, 曾坚, 赵广宇. 闽三角城市群洪涝灾害风险分区及规划策略探讨[J]. 中国园林, 2021, 37 (12): 70-75.
	Wang Q W, Zeng J, Zhao G Y. Discussion on the flood disaster risk zoning and planning strategy of urban agglomeration in the Min Delta[J]. Chinese Landscape Architecture, 2021, 37 (12): 70-75 (in Chinese)
[11]	程丽颖. 快速城镇化背景下厦门暴雨内涝形成机理及规划防控研究[D]. 天津: 天津大学, 2019.
	Cheng L Y. Study on formation mechanism and planning control methods of rainstorm waterlogging in Xiamen under the background of rapid urbanization[D]. Tianjin:Tianjin University, 2019 (in Chinese)
[12]	河南省人民政府. 省情[EB/OL]. 2018 [2022-07-28]. https://www.henan.gov.cn/2018/05-31/2408.html.
	The People’s Government of Henan Province. Province status[EB/OL]. 2018 [2022-07-28]. https://www.henan.gov.cn/2018/05-31/2408.html (in Chinese)
[13]	丁锶湲. 基于数字技术的厦门雨涝易发地区灾害防控方法研究[D]. 天津: 天津大学, 2018.
	Ding S Y. Disaster prevention methods of Xiamen waterlogging area based on digital technology[D]. Tianjin:Tianjin University, 2018 (in Chinese)
[14]	张改英. 基于SCS-CN方法的水文过程计算模型研究[D]. 南京: 南京师范大学, 2014.
	Zhang G Y. Study on calculation model of hydrological processes based on SCS-CN method[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing Normal University, 2014 (in Chinese)
[15]	陈腊娇. 基于SWAT模型的土地利用/覆被变化产流产沙效应模拟[D]. 金华: 浙江师范大学, 2006.
	Chen L J. Simulation of runoff and sediment discharge respond to landuse and landcover changes based on SWAT model[D]. Jinhua: Zhejiang Normal University, 2006 (in Chinese)
[16]	张敏, 任仲申. 谈水文土壤分组方法及其对生态规划的指导[J]. 山西建筑, 2014, 40 (11): 225-226.
	Zhang M, Ren Z S. On water soil grouping method and its direction for ecological planning[J]. Shanxi Architecture, 2014, 40 (11): 225-226 (in Chinese)
[17]	刘钦, 王雯涛. SWAT模型土壤物理属性数据库构建方法探究[J]. 水科学与工程技术, 2015 (6): 40-42.
	Liu Q, Wang W T. Construction method of SWAT model soil physical property database[J]. Water Sciences and Engineering Technology, 2015 (6): 40-42 (in Chinese)
[18]	陈裕婵, 张正栋, 万露文, 等. 五华河流域非点源污染风险区和风险路径识别[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73 (9): 1765-1777. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201809012
	Chen Y C, Zhang Z D, Wan L W, et al. Identifying risk areas and risk paths of non-point source pollution in Wuhua River basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73 (9): 1765-1777 (in Chinese) doi: 10.11821/dlxb201809012
[19]	叶盛. 石羊河流域SCS-CN模型建模与分析[D]. 武汉: 华中科技大学, 2018.
	Ye S. Shiyang river basin SCS-CN model modeling and analysis[D]. Wuhan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2018 (in Chinese)
[20]	刘宁. 基于SCS-CN模型的山地城市典型区域地表径流预测[D]. 重庆: 重庆交通大学, 2019.
	Liu N. Prediction of surface runoff in typical areas of mountainous cities based on SCS-CN model[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing Jiaotong University, 2019 (in Chinese)
[21]	符素华, 王向亮, 王红叶, 等. SCS-CN径流模型中CN值确定方法研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2012, 35 (3): 415-421.
	Fu S H, Wang X L, Wang H Y, et al. Method of determining CN value in the SCS-CN method[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2012, 35 (3): 415-421 (in Chinese)
[22]	孟令超. 基于SWAT模型的泰山药乡小流域径流模拟研究[D]. 泰安: 山东农业大学, 2014.
	Meng L C. The runoff simulation of SWAT model in Mountain Tai Yaoxiang small watershed[D]. Tai’an: Shandong Agricultural University, 2014 (in Chinese)
[23]	丁锶湲, 王宁, 倪丽丽, 等. 基于SCS-CN与GIS耦合模型的闽三角城市群承灾空间淹没风险研究[J]. 灾害学, 2022, 37 (1): 171-177.
	Ding S Y, Wang N, Ni L L, et al. Study on the inundation risk of disaster space in the Min Delta urban agglomeration based on SCS-CN and GIS coupling model[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2022, 37 (1): 171-177 (in Chinese)
[24]	丁锶湲, 曾穗平, 田健. 基于内涝灾害防控的厦门雨洪安全格局模拟与设计策略研究[J]. 城市建筑, 2017 (33): 118-122.
	Ding S Y, Zeng S P, Tian J. Simulation and design strategy of rainstorm safety pattern in Xiamen based on waterlogging prevention and control[J]. Urbanism and Architecture, 2017 (33): 118-122 (in Chinese)
[25]	楚纯洁, 赵景波. 宋元时期豫西山地丘陵区洪涝灾害时空分布特征[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2015, 24 (5): 57-67.
	Chu C J, Zhao J B. Spatio-temporal distributions of flood disasters during Song and Yuan Dynasties in mountain and hilly areas of western Henan province[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2015, 24 (5): 57-67 (in Chinese)
[26]	孔锋, 史培军, 方建, 等. 典型国家和地区的暴雨变化及其与城镇化因子关系的初探: 以美国、欧洲、中国、巴西和印度为例[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2017, 31 (10): 90-97.
	Kong F, Shi P J, Fang J, et al. Change of heavy rainfall in different countries and regions and its relationship with urbanization factors: a case study over USA, Europe, China, Brazil and India[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2017, 31 (10): 90-97 (in Chinese)
[27]	周晋红, 王秀明, 蔡晓芳, 等. 山西一次突发大暴雨的中尺度特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2021, 35 (12): 52-59.
	Zhou J H, Wang X M, Cai X F, et al. Mesoscale characteristics of a sudden heavy rainstorm in Shanxi[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2021, 35 (12): 52-59 (in Chinese)

基于SCS-CN模型的暴雨情景下河南省历史遗存淹没风险评价

Inundation risk assessment of historical relics in Henan province under rainstorm scenarios based on SCS-CN model

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 12

参考文献 27

相关文章 14

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	马铮, 王国复, 张颖娴. 1961—2019年中国区域连续性暴雨过程的危险性区划[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(2): 142-153.
[2]	蔡怡亨, 韩振宇, 周波涛. 对基于RegCM4降尺度的中国区域性暴雨事件模拟评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(4): 420-429.
[3]	高筱懿, 赵俊虎, 周杰, 钱忠华, 封国林. 1961—2018年长江中下游地区暴雨过程的客观识别及其变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(3): 329-339.
[4]	张君枝,袁冯,王冀,孙赫敏,刘洪,马文林. 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下北京市暴雨洪涝淹没风险研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(1): 78-87.
[5]	叶殿秀,王遵娅,高荣,王荣,肖潺. 1961—2016年我国区域性暴雨过程的客观识别及其气候特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(6): 575-583.
[6]	张德二, 梁有叶. 1730年夏季黄淮地区暴雨极端事件研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(5): 407-412.
[7]	王胜, 吴蓉, 谢五三, 卢燕宇. 基于FloodArea的山洪灾害风险区划研究——以淠河流域为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(5): 432-441.
[8]	陆桂华, 张亚洲, 肖恒, 刘志雨, 胡建伟, 吴志勇. 气候变化背景下蚌埠市暴雨与淮河上游洪水遭遇概率分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2015, 11(1): 31-37.
[9]	王艳君, 高超, 王安乾, 王豫燕, 张飞跃, 翟建青, 李修仓, 苏布达. 中国暴雨洪涝灾害的暴露度与脆弱性时空变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(6): 391-398.
[10]	孙倩黄耀姬兴杰成林. 气候变化背景下河南省冬小麦品种更新特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(4): 282-288.
[11]	陈峪;陈鲜艳;任国玉. 中国主要河流流域极端降水变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(04): 265-269.
[12]	张艳梅江志红王冀刘毅. 贵州夏季暴雨的气候特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(003): 182-186.
[13]	余卫东柳俊高常军王纪军. 1957-2005年河南省降水和温度极端事件变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(002): 78-083.
[14]	陈晓光郑广芬陈晓娟张智. 气候变暖背景下宁夏暴雨日数的变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 03(02): 85-090.