德国能源转型进程及对中国的启示

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.119

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

总结发达国家能源转型过程中的经验和教训，对中国推动能源转型和实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。文中回顾了中国和德国电力结构的演变进程，阐述了中国和德国能源转型的机制，并以2022年3月19日为例，分析了德国电力系统灵活性调节的经验。研究表明，健全的法律体系为德国能源转型提供了重要保障，“煤炭委员会”和相关财政支持有效解决了煤电转型过程中的问题，电力市场化是发展可再生主体新型电力系统的重要前提，风力和光伏发电精准预测与管理是可再生能源消纳的关键，煤电和互联互通的欧洲电网是当前德国电力供给的重要保障，过于激进的退煤去核战略是造成2022年德国能源危机的重要原因。最后，从法律保障、市场改革和可再生能源预测与管理等方面提出了中国能源转型的政策建议。

关键词: 碳达峰碳中和, 德国能源转型, 电力价格, 100%可再生电力, 灵活性

Abstract:

Germany is a pioneer in the global energy transition. Both China and Germany have the characteristics of “rich coal, poor oil and little gas” resource endowment, high dependence of oil and natural gas on foreign countries, and uneven energy demand and distribution. Summarizing the experience and lessons from the energy transition process of Germany is of great significance for China to promote energy transition and achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

This paper introduces the evolution of electricity structure in China and Germany, elaborates the mechanism of energiewende in China and Germany, and analyzes the experience of Germany power system flexibility regulation taking March 19, 2022 as an example. Research shows that the sound legal system provides an important guarantee for Germany energy transformation, the German coal commission and relevant financial support have effectively solved relative problems in the process of coal to renewable, the liberalized power market is a prerequisite for developing a new power system with renewable energy as the main body, accurate prediction and management of wind and photovoltaic power generation are the key to renewable energy consumption, coal power and the interconnected European grid are important guarantees to ensure the stability of power supply in Germany, the overly aggressive strategy of removing coal and denuclearization are important reasons for the current German energy crisis.

In view of this, based on the experience of Germany’s energy transition and the lessons of the 2022 Germany energy crisis, this paper draws the following inspirations: adhere to the primary goal of energy security, vigorously develop new energy. Accelerate the construction of “double carbon” legal system to provide legal guarantee for promoting energy transformation. Continuously promote the reform of the power market and provide strong support for the construction of a new power system. Strengthen the accurate prediction and management of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and improve the consumption level of wind power and photovoltaic power. Strengthen international cooperation and promote energy transformation in a coordinated manner.

Key words: Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, Germany energiewende, Electricity prices, Renewable power, Flexibility

李品, 谢晓敏, 黄震. 德国能源转型进程及对中国的启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(1): 116-126.

LI Pin, XIE Xiao-Min, HUANG Zhen. The process of Germany energiewende and its enlightenment to China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(1): 116-126.

图/表 10

图1 1926—2021年德国发电结构

Fig. 1 Power generation structure in Germany from 1926 to 2021

图2 1985—2021年中国发电结构

Fig. 2 Power generation structure in China from 1985 to 2021

图3 中国和德国非水可再生能源发电比重

Fig. 3 Proportion of non-water renewable power in China and Germany

图4 德国电力市场的调度顺序

Fig. 4 Dispatching sequence of German electricity market

图5 2022年3月19日德国电力生产与消费

Fig. 5 German electricity production and consumption on March 19, 2022

图6 可再生能源发电量、化石能源发电量与日前价格相关性

Fig. 6 Correlation between renewable energy generation, fossil energy power generation and day ahead price

图7 2022年3月19日德国可再生能源发电量与日前价格

Fig. 7 German’s electricity production and day ahead price on March 19, 2022

图8 2022年3月19日德国化石能源发电及灵活性

Fig. 8 German fossil power generation and flexibility on March 19, 2022

图9 2022年3月19日德国抽水储能电站的发电及储能变化

Fig. 9 German generation and storage changes of pumped storage power stations on March 19, 2022

图10 2022年3月19日德国光伏发电及预测

Fig. 10 German photovoltaic power generation and forecast on March 19, 2022

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