主要发达经济体从碳达峰到碳中和的路径及启示

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.073

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着气候变化影响加剧，全球气候治理进程加速，实现碳达峰已经成为全球气候行动的核心，各国也相继制定碳中和目标并开展行动。中国在第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上提出了碳达峰碳中和目标，部分已实现碳达峰的发达经济体也提出了各自的碳中和承诺。文中从“整体-阶段”及“焦点-公平”视角分析了欧盟和美国等主要发达经济体碳达峰的历程和特点，以及其碳中和目标和规划。研究发现，发达经济体在碳达峰过程中普遍经历了较长的爬坡期（58~136年）和平台期（4~20年)，在碳达峰时，发达经济体的能源结构以油气为主，油气占一次能源消费比重为57%~77%，其人均排放量、历史累计排放以及人均GDP也都处于较高水平，在碳达峰前后总体处于经济与碳排放脱钩状态。各发达经济体的碳中和路径均以能源转型为重点，采用了多元化的政策工具，并且注重低碳和负碳技术的革新。根据发达经济体的政策展望，在实现碳中和时，均难以将绝对排放量降为零，都需要通过碳移除手段进行抵消。通过对比分析，发现中国的碳达峰和碳中和目标是具有雄心的气候承诺，相较其他发达经济体需要付出更大努力。建议运用全面综合的政策工具支撑碳中和目标的有效落实，加快中国的气候立法，在兼顾公正转型的同时推动能源结构调整，注重可再生能源和能效方面的新技术开发应用。

关键词: 减排路径, 碳达峰, 碳中和, 双碳, 气候变化

Abstract:

As climate change intensifies and the global climate governance process accelerates, carbon peaking has become the core of global climate action, with an increasing number of countries setting carbon neutrality targets and taking actions. China announced the “dual carbon” goals at the 75th General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly. Several developed economies that have already peaked also proposed carbon neutral commitments. Adopting both holistic and focal perspectives which highlight phases and equity respectively, this paper analyses the course and characteristics of carbon peaking, as well as carbon neutrality targets and plans of major developed economies including the EU and the US. It is found that developed economies usually experienced a relatively long climbing period (58-136 years) and plateau phase (4-20 years) in the process of carbon peaking. For these economies, at the time of carbon peaking, the energy mix was dominated by oil and natural gas, which accounted for 57%-77% of primary energy consumption. In addition, per capita emissions, historical cumulative emissions and per capita GDP were all at a high level. The decoupling of economy growth and carbon emissions were achieved around the carbon peak. Carbon neutrality pathways of developed countries generally focus on energy transition, apply diverse policy instruments, and emphasize low and negative carbon technology innovation. Based on the policy outlook of developed economies, it is difficult to reduce absolute emissions to zero when achieving carbon neutrality, and offset by carbon removal methods is required. Through a comparative analysis, this paper finds that China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutral targets are ambitious climate commitments that require greater efforts than those of developed economies. To support the implementation of China’s carbon neutrality goal, it is recommended to use a comprehensive integrated policy framework, accelerate climate legislation, promote energy transition in a just transition approach, and strengthen the development and application of renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies.

Key words: Emission reduction pathway, Carbon peaking, Carbon neutrality, Dual carbon, Climate change

樊星, 李路, 秦圆圆, 高翔. 主要发达经济体从碳达峰到碳中和的路径及启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(1): 102-115.

FAN Xing, LI Lu, QIN Yuan-Yuan, GAO Xiang. The pathway from carbon peak to carbon neutrality in major developed economies and its insights[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(1): 102-115.

图/表 10

图1 “双碳”路径特征分析框架

Fig. 1 Analytical framework for the feature of carbon peaking to carbon neutrality process

图2 主要发达经济体碳达峰爬坡期、平台期及下降至碳中和期走势注：图(c)中虚线部分为趋势推算下降走势。

Fig. 2 Trends of carbon peaking in major developed economies. (Including climbing phase, plateau phase, and the phase of declining to carbon neutrality)

表1 主要发达经济体从碳达峰至碳中和各阶段时长比较

Table 1 Comparison on the duration of the phases from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality in major developed economies

表2 主要发达经济体达峰时人均碳排放量以及历史累计碳排放量和人均历史累计碳排放量比较

Table 2 Carbon emissions per capita at the time of carbon peaking, historical cumulative carbon emissions and historical cumulative carbon emissions per capita of major developed economies

图3 主要发达经济体达峰时人均GDP水平比较

Fig. 3 Comparison of GDP per capita in major developed economies at the time of carbon peaking

图4 主要发达经济体碳达峰前后脱钩程度分布比较注：图中将达峰前后各10年按照两年间隔分为10个时期，B代表达峰前年份，P代表达峰年份，A代表达峰后年份，按顺序计为B10-8、B8-6、B6-4、B4-2、B2-P、P-A2、A2-4、A4-6、A6-8、A8-10。

Fig. 4 The extent of decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions in major developed economies in the decades before and after carbon peaking

图5 主要发达经济体一次能源消费占比变化注：数据来自BP Statistical Energy Review 2021。

Fig. 5 Changes of primary energy consumption mix in major developed economies

表3 主要发达经济体碳中和年剩余排放量和抵消路径

Table 3 Remained emissions of the carbon-neutral year and corresponding removal means for major developed economies

图6 主要发达经济体碳中和路径设计的总体框架

Fig. 6 Framework of carbon neutrality pathways in major developed economies

表4 主要发达经济体2020、2030及2050年全经济范围温室气体减排目标

Table 4 Major developed economies’ economy-wide GHG reduction targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050

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