全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下淮河上游干流径流量研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.067

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 583-592.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.067

全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下淮河上游干流径流量研究

查芊郁^1,²,高超²,杨茹¹,刘悦³,阮甜¹,李鹏⁴

1 安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院,芜湖 241000
2 宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系,宁波 315211
3 河海大学水文水资源学院,南京 210029
4 河南省驻马店水文水资源勘测局,驻马店 450003

收稿日期:2018-05-07 修回日期:2018-07-10 出版日期:2018-11-30 发布日期:2018-11-30
通讯作者: 高超
作者简介:查芊郁,女,硕士研究生,zhaqiany@126.com;
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41571018);国家自然科学基金项目(51679144);河南省水利科技与攻关计划项目(GG201713)

Study on runoff under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River

Qian-Yu ZHA^1,²,Chao GAO²,Ru YANG¹,Yue LIU³,Tian RUAN¹,Peng LI⁴

1 College of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China
2 Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China;
3 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210029, China
4 Zhumadian Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau, Zhumadian 450003, China

Received:2018-05-07 Revised:2018-07-10 Online:2018-11-30 Published:2018-11-30
Contact: Chao GAO

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于ISI-MIP（The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project）推荐使用的5个全球气候模式数据(HadGEM2-ES,GFDL-ESM2M,MIROC-ESM-CHEM,Nor-ESM1-M,IPSL-CM5ALR),驱动SWIM（Soil and Water Integrated Model）水文模型,研究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下淮河上游干流径流量变化,得出结论：(1)淮河上游干流径流量年际变化在2种升温情景下均呈先减小后增加趋势。全球升温1.5℃时年径流量较基准期(1986—2005年)增长9.5%,而升温2.0℃情景下涨幅更明显,高达17%。(2) 4个季节径流量在2种升温情景下较基准期均有增长,其中春季涨幅最明显,达24.4%,夏、秋、冬季涨幅分别为7.1%、16.1%、13.5%。全球升温2.0℃时淮河上游干流径流量在4个季节较基准期增长率均大于全球升温1.5℃时。(3)不同气候模式输出日径流量最大值相差较大而平均值相差较小。未来2种升温情景日径流量超过王家坝闸设计流量的日次较基准期均有增加,尤其升温2.0℃情景较基准期增多22次,较升温1.5℃情景多5.8次,表明未来升温2.0℃情景下淮河上游出现极端径流事件的可能性进一步增大。

关键词: 升温1.5℃, 升温2.0℃, 全球气候模式, SWIM水文模型, 淮河上游, 径流量

Abstract:

Based on five global climate model data recommended by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP) and Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), the changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River were analyzed. The research results show as follows: the interannual variation of the runoff in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River decreased first and then increased under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. The annual runoff at the global warming of 1.5℃ will increase by 9.5% relative to the reference period (1986-2005), while the increase under global warming of 2.0℃ is even more pronounced, reaching 17%. Secondly runoff in four seasons has an increase compared to the reference period under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, and the spring runoff rises the most, reaching 24.4%, and the summer, autumn, and winter gains are 7.1%, 16.1%, and 13.5%, respectively. Under global warming of 2.0℃, the rate of increase of runoff in mainstream of the upper reaches of the Huaihe River in the four seasons is larger than under the global warming of 1.5℃. Finally, the maximum daily runoff of different global climate models differs greatly from each other while the average difference is small. Under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, the number of days with daily flow exceeding the design flow of the Wangjiaba sluice, increases compared with the reference period, especially under global warming of 2.0℃, which is 22 times more than the reference period and 5.8 times more than under global warming of 1.5℃.

Key words: Global warming of 1.5℃, Global warming of 2.0℃, Global climate model, SWIM hydrological model, Upstream of Huaihe River, Stream flow

查芊郁,高超,杨茹,刘悦,阮甜,李鹏. 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下淮河上游干流径流量研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 583-592.

Qian-Yu ZHA,Chao GAO,Ru YANG,Yue LIU,Tian RUAN,Peng LI. Study on runoff under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(6): 583-592.

图/表 8

图1 研究区地理位置图

Fig. 1 Geographical location map of the study area

图2 5个全球气候模式输出气温相对工业化前（1850—1900年）升温达到1.5 ℃ (a)和2.0℃(b)时间曲线

Fig. 2 Global temperatures rise by 1.5 ℃ (a) and 2.0℃(b) relative to pre-industrial period (1850-1900)

图3 率定期（1959—1978年）(a)与验证期（1979—1998年）(b) 淮河上游干流日径流量序列模拟结果

Fig. 3 Observed and simulated daily discharge in calibration period (1959-1978) (a) and validation period (1979-1998) (b)

图4 全球升温1.5℃ (a)和2.0℃(b)情景下淮河上游干流年径流量

Fig. 4 Annual runoff under global warming of 1.5℃ (a) and 2.0℃(b) in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River

图5 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下淮河上游干流径流量相对基准期（1986—2005年）变化率

Fig. 5 Percentage changes of the annual average discharge relative to the reference period (1986-2005) under global warming of 1.5℃and 2.0℃ in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River

图6 全球升温1.5℃ (a)和2.0℃(b)情景下不同季节淮河上游干流径流量较基准期变化率

Fig. 6 Percentage changes of the average discharge in different seasons relative to the reference period (1986-2005) under global warming of 1.5℃ (a) and 2.0℃(b) in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River

图7 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下淮河上游干流最大日流量 (a)及日径流量箱线图(b)

Fig. 7 Maximum daily runoff (a) (shape on the line means daily average discharge) and boxplot (b) (diamond icon means daily average discharge) under global warming of 1.5℃and 2.0℃in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River

Table 1 The number of daily runoff more than 1626 m3/s in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River under global warming of 1.5℃and 2.0℃

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全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下淮河上游干流径流量研究

Study on runoff under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River

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