关键词: 地球系统模式（ESMs), 评估方法, 定量评估, 回顾

Abstract: There are obvious progress in the evaluation methods of the recent Earth system models (ESMs), from single variable to the multi-variable, multiple process, much phenomenon quantitative assessments in five layers (spheres) of the Earth, from the climatic mean assessment to climate change (such as trend, periodic, interdecadal variability), extreme value, abnormal characters and phenomenon quantitative assessments, from a qualitative evaluation to quantitative calculation of reliability and uncertainty for model simulation. Researchers began to consider patterns between independence and similarity in multi-model use, as well as the quantitative evaluation of climate prediction and projection effect and the quantitative uncertainty contribution analysis.

Key words: Earth system models (ESMs), evaluation methods, quantitative assessments, review