基于动态矿井数据库的中国煤炭甲烷排放清单改进及回算研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.118

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

煤炭部门是我国最大的人为甲烷排放源，约占我国人为甲烷排放的38%。已有研究表明中国煤炭部门的甲烷排放清单存在较大不确定性，亟需改进清单的核算方法以提高准确性。文中通过基于公开数据建立的动态矿井数据库，结合政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）清单指南的高层级方法，改进了中国煤矿甲烷的清单，并对2012和2014年的煤炭甲烷排放清单进行了回算。结果表明，我国2012年煤矿甲烷总排放为23.33 Tg，与国家清单报告的总量较为一致，但各环节的差异较大。而2014年回算的煤矿甲烷总排放为25.87 Tg，比国家清单高23%。本研究与国家温室气体清单的差异可能主要归因于废弃矿井甲烷排放。本研究估计的废弃矿井甲烷排放占我国煤矿甲烷总排放量的10%~20%，已经成为煤炭甲烷的第二大排放源，但其重要性被现有研究严重低估。同时，排放因子等关键参数的动态变化也极大影响了清单的准确性，说明了提高基础数据时效性的重要性。本研究成果为提升煤炭甲烷清单准确性、支持减排决策分析及实现高质量履约提供了参考。

关键词: 温室气体清单, 煤炭甲烷, 废弃矿井甲烷（AMM）

Abstract:

The coal sector, which is the largest anthropogenic methane source in China, accounts for 38% of the country’s total anthropogenic methane emissions. Studies have identified significant uncertainties in existing inventories, indicating the urgency to enhance the accuracy of China’s coal methane inventory. Using a self-built dynamic mine-level database and high-tier methodologies in emission calculation recommended by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) inventory guidelines, this work improved China’s coal methane inventory and revised the estimation of coal methane emissions in 2012 and 2014. The results show consistency of coal methane emissions in 2012 between this work (23.33 Tg) and China’s national greenhouse gas inventory (23.85 Tg). However, it is important to note that the consistency observed in 2012 does not guarantee the accuracy of China’s national inventory due to significant discrepancies among sub-sources. In fact, coal methane emissions in 2014 were found to be 25.87 Tg, or 23% higher, compared to the national inventory. Further analysis reveals that abandoned mine methane (AMM) is the most significant source of this discrepancy, which has emerged as the second largest contributor of coal methane emissions, accounting for a share of 10%?20%, but has been substantially underestimated in previous studies. Additionally, this work identifies the dynamic variation of key parameters, such as the emission factor, as having a significant impact on inventory accuracy. It highlights the importance of timely updates to fundamental data, such as the timely measurements of mine gas gushing rates. Overall, this work makes significant contribution to improving the accuracy of coal methane inventory, supporting policy decisions of methane mitigation, and ensuring high-quality compliance.

Key words: Greenhouse gas inventory, Coal methane, Abandoned mine methane (AMM)

刘强, 滕飞, 张林垚. 基于动态矿井数据库的中国煤炭甲烷排放清单改进及回算研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(6): 704-713.

LIU Qiang, TENG Fei, ZHANG Lin-Yao. The improvement and recalculation of China’s coal methane emission inventory based on a dynamic mine-level database[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(6): 704-713.

图/表 7

表1 其他公开数据来源

Table 1 Other publicly available data sources

图1 干枯井和水淹井的衰减曲线

Fig. 1 The decay curves of dry mines and flooded mine

表2 各环节排放计算方法的改进

Table 2 Improvements on calculating methodology of each sub-source

图2 2012和2014年各来源甲烷排放

Fig. 2 Methane emissions from each sub-source in 2012 and 2014

图3 2012和2014年煤炭甲烷净排放总量

Fig. 3 Overall net coal methane emissions in 2012 and 2014

表3 不确定性参数

Table 3 Uncertain parameters

表4 排放量及不确定性范围

Table 4 Methane emissions and uncertainty range Tg

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